AirportWatch News Bulletin No. 9 for November 2006

People are saying that the debate on climate change may have been
altered forever with the publication of the Stern Review last month.
Sir Nicholas Stern, the chief economist at the Treasury and formerly
with the World Bank, was asked by Gordon Brown to produce a report
assessing the economic costs of climate change. At the heart of Stern's
findings was the argument that the world should start spending
considerable sums of money now or face tumbling into a world-wide
recession as the costs of climate change overwhelmed the economy. He
put the cost of not acting now on climate change at £3.68 trillion.

There has been a lot of interest in Brown's motivation in commissioning
the work. Certainly, Labour was falling behind the other main political
parties in the green stakes. Both the Liberal Democrats and the
Conservatives have been talking about 'eco-taxes'. The Stern Review
gives Brown the opportunity to parade his green credentials. It also
gives him a sound intellectual basis to impose green taxes should he
wish to do so.

An executive summary of the Stern Review can be seen at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/30_10_06_exec_sum.pdf

The full report can be found at the Treasury website, at:

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm

** Government Shies Away from Green Taxes on Aviation

Despite Stern, there is no indication that the Government is prepared
to impose green taxes on aviation. There is the possibility that the
Chancellor may increase Air Passenger Duty in his Budget in March (as,
we understand, he nearly did last year) but beyond that, it seems that
the Government is putting transport and aviation in the "too difficult"
box. When a number of transport campaign groups met Douglas Alexander,
the Transport Secretary of State, last month, he made it clear that the
Government was looking for emissions reductions from other sectors of
the economy rather than tackle transport. This also appears to be the
view of Environment Secretary David Miliband who, in recent television
appearances, has said that the Government is not in the business of
making air holidays more expensive. In a letter from Miliband to Gordon
Brown advocating a range of green taxes, he mooted the idea of
increasing APD on flights and imposing VAT, but his public utterances
on aviation have been disappointing. Despite being advised by the
admirable Tony Grayling (formerly from the think-tank, the Institute
for Public Policy Research and co-author of The Sky's the Limit, a book
the aviation industry hated), Miliband has shown no sign so far of
being a friend of aviation campaigners. He is also said to be
uninterested in noise, which informed sources say he does not regard as
a major issue.

** A blast from Oxford University

Last month a major new report from Oxford University, in conjunction
with TRL, Predict and Provide, was launched in the House of Lords by
the All-Party Group for Sustainable Aviation. The report is a
devastating indictment of the Government's aviation policy and the
shaky "evidence" on which it is based. The report is superb. It
systematically marshals its facts to show that the Government's
aviation policy is not compatible with its climate targets. It calls
for a change in strategic policy to give a presumption against the
expansion of UK airport capacity; a fiscal package to make flying less
attractive; and a communication strategy that builds on existing public
support for aviation's environmental impacts to be addressed.

Available on:

http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/research/energy/downloads/predictandprovide

** For richer, not for the poorer: the great budget airline myth

Each year the CAA carries out a survey on who is flying. Its 2005
figures have just been released. They can be found at the CAA website
at:

http://www.caa.co.uk/application.aspx?categoryid=14&pagetype=65&applicationid=7&newstype=n&mode=detail&nid=1362

They show that most seats on cheap flights are filled by the
better-off. The Government has claimed that raising the cost of air
tickets would be unfair to poorer households, who have come to expect a
foreign holiday each year. The CAA has found that the social profile of
air passengers has hardly changed in the past ten years, during which
Ryanair and easyJet have grown from tiny operations to become two of
the biggest airlines in Europe. Ryanair sells millions of return
tickets costing less than £40, but the poor still cannot afford all
the other costs of a foreign trip, such as hotels and meals, the survey
says.

The study, which is based on interviews with 200,000 passengers last
year, shows that Ryanair passengers are just as wealthy as British
Airways passengers despite paying lower prices for their tickets.

The average income of passengers at Stansted, the main base for
Ryanair, rose above £50,000 for the first time last year. Leisure
passengers at Stansted had an average household income of £983 a week,
more than 50 per cent higher than the national average of £601. One in
seven had incomes of more than £80,000 a year. Those in social groups
D and E, which cover low-skilled workers and those on benefits, took
only 9.5 per cent of leisure flights at Stansted last year, despite
making up 27 per cent of the population. The As and Bs - professionals
and senior managers who make up 24 per cent of the population - took 41
per cent of the flights.

** And still the Government's not listening.....

Despite this growing evidence that the Government's aviation policy
makes little sense, the Department for Transport is expected to reject
a rethink of the 2003 Aviation White Paper when it produces its
'progress report' at the end of this year. It is expected to turn all
sorts of statistical summersaults to show that its White Paper is still
based on sound data and firmly on course. The progress report is
expected to be published in December.

AirportWatch will produce a briefing in advance of the progress report
for local campaigners to use.

** though it might listen to this man, Rod Eddington

The Eddington Report is expected to be published on 27th November, the
same day as Gordon Brown issues his pre-budget statement. Just over a
year ago Brown and Blair asked Rod Eddington, the Australian who had
just stepped down as Chief Executive of British Airways, to examine the
sort of transport infrastructure that UK business would require over
the next 30 years. He's expected to endorse the expansion of airports
and of the motorway network. But, so as not to look like a complete
dinosaur post-Stern, he is expected to recommend that these
developments go ahead only if "the environment cost" is factored into
their construction. If this does turn out to be the case, it may allow
Brown to claim that the report is consistent with the Stern Review.

** Government under pressure

When it published its 2003 Aviation White Paper the Government hoped -
and probably expected - that it would signal the beginning of the end
of the aviation debate. But campaigners ensured that nothing of the
sort happened. And now the Government is under more pressure than ever
before to change course. The Liberal Democrats have called for no more
runways in the South East and favour eco-taxes. The Conservatives seem
to be moving in that direction. The Green Party has consistently argued
for a new approach to aviation. But, as we reported in a previous
bulletin, opinion polls are now showing that a majority of UK citizens
say they would be prepared to pay more for flights because of the way
aviation is damaging the environment. And the issue has become big in
the media. One of the most dramatic examples of this was the front page
of the Independent on 2nd November, entitled "Plane Crazy". It
graphically illustrated the proposed expansion plans for airports
across the country. Below is the opening paragraph of the article (with
headline):

"PM's vow to tackle global warming hit by plans to treble flights
Airport expansion will treble flights by 2030, flying in the face of
vows to cut global warming By Ian Herbert, Colin Brown and Jonathan
Brown Britain's airports are planning to treble the number of flights
by 2030, despite the recent Stern report's grave warnings about the
environmental effects of expanding air travel in the UK. From a third
runway at Heathrow to a £25m terminal expansion at Glasgow and 50
extra aircraft stands at Luton, the airports' expansion proposals are
revealed in a 25-year master plan to be presented this autumn to the
Department for Transport."

** The Government is being Plane Stupid

The Government is also under real pressure on aviation from a
rejuvenated direct action movement. Plane Stupid, which operates
independently from AirportWatch, has staged a number of successful
actions. At the end of September supporters of Plane Stupid occupied
the taxiway at East Midlands Airport. And 6th November was designated
the Day of Action Against Short-Haul Flights when a number of actions
took place. Protestors 'locked on' to the entrance of Easygroup - the
corporate headquarters of Easyjet in Camden - preventing employees
getting to work while other protestors scaled the roof the building
before unfurling a banner demanding the end to short haul flights. On
the morning of the 6th November employees at least 25 travel agents
across the country found they couldn't get into their offices because
of the activities of 'pixies' during the night. Other actions took
place across the country.

Plane Stupid's dramatic actions - combined with the simple message to
end short-haul flights - highlights the issue in a way that more
conventional campaigning can sometimes struggle to do. Plane Stupid's
actions also produced a flurry of articles in the trade travel press
and prompted a remarkable article in Marketing Week, which came close
to forecasting that cheap, short haul flights would become a thing of
the past, quoting one Director of Marketing as saying that short-haul
budget airlines are about to face the same problem coal did in the
1980s because they are "unnecessary and outdated and therefore facing
decline". Check out the full article on:

http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/item/53183

** Heathrow campaign group HACAN has published research

The Heathrow campaign group HACAN has published research which showed
that the number of flights at Heathrow could be cut by 100,000 a year
if there were no short-haul flights to the 12 destinations where there
is already a viable rail alternative. Astonishingly, it showed that
Paris is the top destination served by Heathrow, with 60 flights a day.
Check details of the research on

http://www.hacan.org.uk

** Plane Stupid can be contacted via their website:

http://www.planestupid.com

** The Government's Mantra: Emissions Trading, Emissions Trading,
Emissions Trading.

Like a criminal cornered in a dead-end street pleading for mercy, the
Government's only response to the intense pressure it is facing is to
chant Emissions Trading. But, as the article (reprinted below) from
Michael McCarthy, the Independent's Environment Correspondent, shows,
Emissions Trading is a flawed solution. Britain's airports are planning
to treble the number of flights by 2030, despite the recent Stern
report's grave warnings about the environmental effects of expanding
air travel in the UK.

>From a third runway at Heathrow to a £25m terminal expansion at
Glasgow and 50 extra aircraft stands at Luton, the airports' expansion
proposals are revealed in a 25-year master plan to be presented this
autumn to the Department for Transport. Article Length: 983 words
(approx.)

Michael McCarthy: Airlines see emissions trading as a get-out clause

Published: 02 November 2006 in the Independent.

Britian's aviation policy is still cruising along cheerfully in the
wrong direction, the new figures for proposed airport expansion make
clear, but there's an awful crunch coming.

The vast growth in airport capacity, passenger numbers and runways
currently planned under the 2003 Aviation White Paper cannot go ahead
unchanged if Britain is to meet its targets for tackling global
warming, targets that were given new emphasis by Tony Blair and Gordon
Brown this week after the publication of the Stern Review on the
Economics of Climate Change.

Consider: as flying continues its headlong boom, greenhouse gas
emissions from aircraft are rising faster than those of any other
sector in the economy. At present, aviation accounts for just under 6
per cent of UK emissions, but they are shooting up. According to
British Airways' own projections, by 2050 they will range from 17 per
cent of the total (under a scenario of low traffic growth and high fuel
efficiency), to no less than 46 per cent of the total (under a scenario
where growth was high and fuel efficiency low.)

But the picture can be expressed in an even more alarming way.
According to the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, if by
mid-century Britain cuts its total carbon emissions by 60 per cent, as
the Government wishes, but aviation does not scale back its own
emissions, flying will then be taking up all the emissions that are
available. That is, everything else - business, power generation, home
heating - will have to go to zero, to allow flying to continue.

Yet remarkably, the aviation industry does not envisage cutting back
its rate of growth, climate change or no climate change. It sees its
salvation in the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), where
it thinks it will be able to buy permits to continue emitting, and
simply pass on the cost to customers, while actual reductions in
emissions are left to ground-based industries. Andrew Sentance, who was
BA's chief economist and head of environmental affairs, admitted this
in June.

The industry's enthusiasm for the ETS makes it look as if it is taking
the environmental problem seriously, when in fact it has spotted a
get-out clause. The only thing that will make a real difference is to
scale back the rate of growth in flights. No one denies that this is an
enormous problem politically, not least because if you put up prices to
discourage flying, it is people on low incomes who will be
disproportionately hit - a very hard thing for any Labour government to
countenance. Yet there are potential ways forward, such as cutting back
on the huge number of short-haul flights to destinations where there is
already a good rail alternative.

The Government will have to do something, or its climate policy will be
a nonsense. It is committed to reviewing the 2003 Aviation White Paper
by the end of the year. Watch this space.

Britain's aviation policy is still cruising along cheerfully in the
wrong direction, the new figures for proposed airport expansion make
clear, but there's an awful crunch coming. The vast growth in airport
capacity, passenger numbers and runways currently planned under the
2003 Aviation White Paper cannot go ahead unchanged if Britain is to
meet its targets for tackling global warming, targets that were given
new emphasis by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown this week after the
publication of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change.

The Government will have to do something, or its climate policy will be
a nonsense. It is committed to reviewing the 2003 Aviation White Paper
by the end of the year. Watch this space.

At the end of this year or early in 2007 the European Commission is
expected to issue its proposals for an Aviation EU Emissions Trading
System for debate in the European Parliament and decision by the
Council of Ministers during 2007. This follows the vote in the European
Parliament in July 2006 that endorsed a report from its Environment
Committee, written by UK Green MEP Caroline Lucas, calling for a
'closed' Emissions Trading System (where airlines can only trade
permits with other airlines) as well as a tax on aviation fuel and a
charge on emissions. The indications are that the European Commission
is likely to go for a weak, open Emissions Trading System, favoured by
the aviation industry, and not much else.

** A neat idea from Southampton

The Master Plans continue to spew forth from the airports. You'll
recall that the Government, in the White Paper, required airports to
produce Master Plans in which they would outline their expansion plans
up to 2030 and their impact upon the surrounding communities. Recently
we have had master plans from Manchester, Glasgow and Southampton.

The Southampton campaigners came up with a great idea and produced
their own alternative master plan which they had ready for release on
the day that the airport's produced theirs. Southampton Airport
currently handles around 1.5 million passengers and 37,400 flights per
annum. The BAA Master Plan projects growth above this figure leading to
3 million passengers and 62,000 flights by 2015, increasing to 6
million passengers and 96,300 flights by 2030. To get an emailed copy
of the campaigners' alternative one email chrisbluemel@yahoo.co.uk

** Climate Change March and Rally

AirportWatch had a very visible and colourful presence on the climate
change march and rally. Thanks to all of you who took part and a
particular thanks to Sarah Clayton and Pete Lockley for doing so much
work in organising the AirportWatch section.

Bulletin compiled by John Stewart with assistance from Sarah Clayton
15.11.2006

date: 16 Nov 2006 09:45:46 -0800 author: SB