The current set is a NE track across the north Atlantic and looks set to
continue for the next week. So shepherding the extended high over the UK and
the lows to Iceland. So breaking the easterly track for most of the "summer"
and consequential failure to develop a blocking high over the UK.
This break in the jetstream "river" was preceded by an oxbow pattern around
the UK which broke through at the north end a week ago , just like oxbow
lake formation. Anyone know what pattern to look for that would precede the
return to an easterly track again. ?

On Sep 20, 8:26 am, "N_Cook"  wrote:
>
> The current set is a NE track across the north Atlantic and looks set to
> continue for the next week. So shepherding the extended high over the UK and
> the lows to Iceland.

And breaking the easterly track for most of the "summer" with the
consequential failure to develop a blocking high over the UK.

> This break in the jet's stream was preceded by an oxbow pattern around
> the UK, that broke through at the north end a week ago, just like an oxbow
> lake formation.

> Anyone know what pattern to look for that would precede the
> return to an easterly track again?

Yes.

When did it all go to hell in an hand basket?

If the models are to be believed then then the inverse loop, encompassing
the UK, will form about thursday next week. So the first opportunity for the
oxbow to break through, at the southerly end , at that time. If that is how
it works.


--
General electronic repairs, other than TVs and PCs
http://www.divdev.fsnet.co.uk/repairs.htm

Diverse Devices, Southampton, England

I would guess the oxbow shedding, if any, around thursday would be over
Greenland (more concentrated there) and so the jetstream track would go east
again but very much further north so continuing the possibility of extended
high over us.
What is the effect on the ground when these very localised contra flows
cease?

Looks as though the jet stream oxbow-break will be over Greenland on Friday
next, so no return to that track over the UK for a while yet. So longer
Indian summer ?


--
General electronic repairs, other than TVs and PCs
http://www.divdev.fsnet.co.uk/repairs.htm

Diverse Devices, Southampton, England

On Sep 21, 8:38 pm, "N_Cook"  wrote:
> Looks as though the jet stream oxbow-break will be over Greenland on Friday
> next, so no return to that track over the UK for a while yet. So longer
> Indian summer ?

"We are not ready for the Jet Stream" (a poignant example of what the
code "shtml" stands for.)