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date: Sat, 13 Sep 2008 04:39:52 -0000,    group: uk.sci.weather        back       
Today's model interpretation (13/09/08)   
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
Issued 0438z, 13th September 2008

The latter half of the working week will see a ridge over the UK, with 
settles weather for most.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
A shallow low covers England, with light winds across the UK. A col affects 
the UK tomorrow, followed by more of the same on Monday and Tuesday.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png / 
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / 
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a strong jet over the North Atlantic with a trough 
over the UK. At the 500hPa level there are northerlies for the UK, while 
MetO has an upper ridge. ECM shows upper westerlies and GEM has a col.
At the surface GFS brings a ridge over Scotland, leading to ENE'lies for 
England and Wales with southerlies elsewhere. ENE'lies affect the UK with 
MetO, due to a weak trough. ECM has a ridge over the UK and light winds for 
all. GEM brings SE'lies for most with high pressure to the NE.

Evolution to T+168
Day 6 with ECM brings a ridge over Scotland and Northern Ireland with 
ENE'lies elsewhere. There's little change on day 7.
A weak ridge covers the UK on day 6 with GFS, leading to light winds. On day 
7 a trough approaches from the west, leading to southerlies for Northern 
Ireland and Scotland, with ENE'lies elsewhere.

Looking further afield
On day 8 with ECM shows ENE'lies over England and Wales with a ridge over 
Scotland and Northern Ireland. Day 9 sees the high to the NE build, with 
NE'lies for England and Wales and SE'lies elsewhere. By day 10 a large 
Scandinavian High leads to gusty easterlies and ENE'lies across the UK.
A trough brings WSW'lies to the UK on day 8 with GFS. On day 9 a col covers 
much of the UK and on day 10 another trough moves in from the west, with 
SSE'lies.

Ensemble analysis 
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=0&ville=Londres)
The ensembles show a generally cool outlook.
date: Sat, 13 Sep 2008 04:39:52 -0000   author:   Darren Prescott

Re: Today's model interpretation (13/09/08)   
On Sat, 13 Sep 2008 at 04:39:52, Darren Prescott 
 wrote in uk.sci.weather :

>Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
>Issued 0438z, 13th September 2008
>
>The latter half of the working week will see a ridge over the UK, with 
>settles weather for most.

Settled weather - what's that? :)
-- 
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)
date: Sat, 13 Sep 2008 08:43:36 GMT   author:   Paul Hyett

Re: Today's model interpretation (13/09/08)   
"Paul Hyett"  wrote in message
news:oQ8jeGOA82yIFwvR@blueyonder.co.uk...
> On Sat, 13 Sep 2008 at 04:39:52, Darren Prescott
>  wrote in uk.sci.weather :
>
> >Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
> >Issued 0438z, 13th September 2008
> >
> >The latter half of the working week will see a ridge over the UK, with
> >settles weather for most.
>
> Settled weather - what's that? :)

It means the rain becomes lighter.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
date: Sat, 13 Sep 2008 09:55:16 +0100   author:   Col

Re: Today's model interpretation (13/09/08)   
On 13 Sep, 09:55, "Col"  wrote:
> "Paul Hyett"  wrote in message
>
> news:oQ8jeGOA82yIFwvR@blueyonder.co.uk...
>
> > On Sat, 13 Sep 2008 at 04:39:52, Darren Prescott
> >  wrote in uk.sci.weather :
>
> > >Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Wednesday.
> > >Issued 0438z, 13th September 2008
>
> > >The latter half of the working week will see a ridge over the UK, with
> > >settles weather for most.
>
> > Settled weather - what's that? :)
>
> It means the rain becomes lighter.
>
> Col
> --
> Bolton, Lancashire.
> 160m asl.

www.nci-stives.org/basiccamera.htm

Well, not sure if 1 day equates to settled, but it's been the best day
for weeks. Calm, almost glassy sea in Mount's Bay today.

Graham
Penzance
date: Sat, 13 Sep 2008 08:15:25 -0700 (PDT)   author:   Graham Easterling

Re: Today's model interpretation (13/09/08)   
On Sat, 13 Sep 2008 08:43:36 GMT, Paul Hyett
 wrote:

>Settled weather - what's that? :)

Today was settled! In fact gloriously warm at Poole where I kept
order between Poole and  Gillingham. 5-4 in a friendly.

Settled weather is when waterproofs are not loaded into the car first
thing

R
date: Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:29:22 +0100   author:   Robin Nicholson

Re: Today's model interpretation (13/09/08)   
In article ,
 Robin Nicholson  writes:
>On Sat, 13 Sep 2008 08:43:36 GMT, Paul Hyett
> wrote:
>
>>Settled weather - what's that? :)
>
>Today was settled! In fact gloriously warm at Poole where I kept
>order between Poole and  Gillingham. 5-4 in a friendly.
>
>Settled weather is when waterproofs are not loaded into the car first
>thing

:)

Surely "settled" implies at least several consecutive days of fine
weather, though? (I've never understood why we don't count consistently
bad weather as settled as well!)
-- 
John Hall
                "Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
                 that man can never learn anything from history."
                                          George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)
date: Sun, 14 Sep 2008 08:38:09 +0100   author:   John Hall

Re: Today's model interpretation (13/09/08)   
On Sun, 14 Sep 2008 08:38:09 +0100, John Hall
 wrote:


>
>Surely "settled" implies at least several consecutive days of fine
>weather, though?

Yes, of course you are right. In anticipation of a settled spell then,
the heavy duty waterproofs have gone two storeys up and it will take a
major change for me to bring them down.
An unexpected bonus for me is picking quite good apples this morning
and finding a clematis (Ernest Markham) is about to give a great
display through the tree. Sunny weather for a few days will give a
very good autumn display
R
date: Sun, 14 Sep 2008 10:05:38 +0100   author:   Robin Nicholson

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