... not doubt, with all the interest on energy supply/price at the 
moment:-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7609036.stm

the seasonal forecast (for winter) is going to be scrutinised closely 
when it is issued, usually towards the end of this month. In the 
meantime though, for those that don't know of the source, you can get 
ahead of the game by looking at the output here:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/monthly_forecasts/single_terce2.html

this is particularly interesting as it integrates the UM/GM and EC 
products, the latter we don't see publically in any other form.

and the general link for 'seasonal' forecasts here:-

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/

Martin.

-- 
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N   Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023

"Martin Rowley"  wrote:

> ... not doubt, with all the interest on energy supply/price at the moment
> the seasonal forecast (for winter) is going to be scrutinised closely when 
> it is issued, usually towards the end of this month.

Well, I shan't be scrutinising the forecast all that closely, but I
shall be - will be, even - scrutinising the words used in the press
release accompanying it.  Much (though not all) of the material
coming from the MO press office during the last approx 18
months has been measured and sensible, in sharp contrast to
the outrageous, provocative and sensationalist stuff of the
preceding few years, including the infamous release associated
with the winter forecast for 2005-06.

Philip

In article <tA4yk.5542$6Y7.1332@newsfe29.ams2>,
 Martin Rowley  writes:
>the seasonal forecast (for winter) is going to be scrutinised closely
>when it is issued, usually towards the end of this month. In the
>meantime though, for those that don't know of the source, you can get
>ahead of the game by looking at the output here:-
>
>http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/monthly_forecasts/single_terce2.html
>
>this is particularly interesting as it integrates the UM/GM and EC
>products, the latter we don't see publically in any other form.

Thanks. Very interesting. The charts need some care in interpreting,
especially when the bottom two of the three are off the bottom of one's
screen. It was a little while before I realised that the colours didn't
indicate temperatures but probabilities!
-- 
John Hall
                "Hegel was right when he said that we learn from history
                 that man can never learn anything from history."
                                          George Bernard Shaw (1856-1950)

On Thu, 11 Sep 2008 10:16:12 +0100, "Philip Eden"
<philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom> wrote:


>Well, I shan't be scrutinising the forecast all that closely, but I
>shall be - will be, even - scrutinising the words used in the press
>release accompanying it.  Much (though not all) of the material
>coming from the MO press office during the last approx 18
>months has been measured and sensible, in sharp contrast to
>the outrageous, provocative and sensationalist stuff of the
>preceding few years, including the infamous release associated
>with the winter forecast for 2005-06.

Ah yes - that was the one that meant that a base commander got a
letter warning him to take all sorts of action over the Christmas
leave period to guard against the problems associated with severe
cold, thus possibly wasting much secretarial time banging out memos to
all. In fact, he decided to ignore it

R

..
>  you can get ahead of the game by looking at the output here:-
>
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/monthly_forecasts/single_terce2.html
> Martin Rowley

The aim of the winter seasonal forecast (as with any season) is to achieve 
the correct "spin" so as not to be wrong in the outcome, with the main feat 
to establish indisputeable evidence in the event of being completely 
incorrect. Something akin to the energy suppliers licence to print money but 
in this its a licence to hoodwink.

-- 
Dave R. [west London]