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date: Fri, 4 Jul 2008 05:13:04 -0000,    group: uk.sci.weather        back       
Today's model interpretation (4/07/08)   
Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday.
Issued 0512z, 4th July 2008

The middle of the week will see low pressure approaching the UK from the 
west. ECM shows the low making only limited progress eastwards, with a ridge 
bringing settled weather for much of the UK. GFS, meanwhile, brings wet 
weather for all as the low becomes slow-moving over the UK. MetO is closer 
to GFS than ECM once again.

Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Low pressure covers Scotland, leading to light SW'lies for much of the UK. 
Tomorrow low pressure deepens to the SW, bringing SE'lies. Sunday sees the 
low fill over the Celtic Sea, with further SE'lies for most. The low deepens 
over the UK on Monday. England and Wales lie under light winds, with 
northerlies elsewhere.

T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png / 
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif / 
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart a split jet over the North Atlantic, with one brnch 
around 47N and the other at 32N. The UK lies under an upper col, while MetO 
brings an upper trough over Scotland and westerlies. ECM has an upper low 
over the North Sea and GEM has a deeper low to the ENE.
At the surface GFS has a col. MetO also has a col over much of the UK, 
although a ridge brings WSW'lies to southern areas. ECM shows a trough over 
northern England, resulting in NE'lies for Scotland and WSW'lies or SW'lies 
elsewhere. GEM brings WNW'lies and westerlies with a large low over the 
North Sea.

Evolution to T+168
A col covers the UK on day 6 with ECM. Day 7 sees a ridge over most areas, 
although southerlies ahead of a low to the west affect Northern Ireland.
GFS shows southerlies and SE'lies on day 6 due to a low to the west. The low 
moves NE'wards slowly on day 7, bringing SSW'lies and southerlies.

Looking further afield
On day 8 light SSE'lies cover the UK as the ridge declines and the low to 
the west fills. On day 9 the SSE'lies persist and by day 10 warm or hot 
ESE'lies cover the UK, drawn up by a low to the SW.
Day 8 with GFS shows low pressure filling over Scotland and Northern 
Ireland, with southerlies elsewhere. Northerlies and NE'lies cover the UK on 
day 9 as the low moves SE'wards and on day 10 a weak ridge crosses Ireland, 
leading to NW'lies.

Ensemble analysis 
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres)
The ensembles persist in showing a week of below-average temperatures aloft, 
with several rainfall events.
date: Fri, 4 Jul 2008 05:13:04 -0000   author:   Darren Prescott

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