Scientists Counter AP Article Promoting Computer Model Climate Fears
By Inhofe EPW Press Blog
September 24, 2007
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=435fb939-802a-23ad-40c2-677f4b36edbf&Issue_id=
Nearly two dozen prominent scientists from around the world have
denounced a recent Associated Press article promoting sea level
fears in the year 2100 and beyond based on unproven computer
models predictions. The AP article also has been accused of
mischaracterizing the views of a leading skeptic of man-made
global warming fears. The scientists are dismissing the AP
article, entitled "Rising Seas Likely to Flood U.S. History"
(LINK) as a "scare tactic," "sheer speculation," and "hype of the
worst order." (H/T: Noel Sheppard of Newsbusters.org - LINK)
Dr. Richard S. Courtney, a climate and atmospheric science
consultant and a UN IPCC expert reviewer ridiculed the AP
article.
"Rarely have I read such a collection of unsubstantiated and
scare-mongering twaddle. Not only do real studies show no
increase to rate of sea level change, the [AP] article gives
reasons for concern that are nonsense," Courtney told Inhofe EPW
Press Blog on September 23.
UN IPCC reviewer and climate researcher Dr Vincent Gray, of New
Zealand slammed the article as well:
"This [AP article] is a typical scare story based on no evidence
or facts, but only on the 'opinions' and 'beliefs' of 'experts',
all of whom have a financial interest in the promotion of their
computer models," Gray wrote to the Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
Swedish Professor Wibjorn Karlen of the Department of Social and
Economic Geography at Stockholm University:
"Another of these hysterical views of our climate," Karlen wrote
to Inhofe EPW Press Blog regarding the AP article. "Newspapers
should think about the damage they are doing to many persons,
particularly young kids, by spreading the exaggerated views of a
human impact on climate," Karlen explained.
The September 22, 2007 Associated Press article promoting future
computer generated climate fears, appears just days before a high
profile UN climate summit in New York City this week. The AP's
Seth Borenstein has a history of promoting unverifiable climate
fears of the future (See: "AP Incorrectly claims scientists
praise Gore's movie" from June 2006 - LINK )
This AP report comes at a time when the peer-reviewed science is
continuing to debunk the foundation of man-made climate change
fears. (See "New Peer-Reviewed Scientific Studies Chill Global
Warming Fears" (LINK)
Alabama State Climatologist Dr. John Christy of the University of
Alabama in Huntsville, stated that the AP mischaracterized his
views on sea level in the article promoting climate fears a
hundred years from now.
"[My] discussion [with the AP reporter Seth Borenstein] was
primarily about the storm surges which come from hurricanes -
that's the real vulnerability. The sea level is rising around 1
inch per decade, but sea level is like any other climate
parameter - its either rising or falling all the time. To me, 16
inches per century is not a significant problem to deal with. But
since storm surges of 15 to 30 feet occur in 6 hours, any
preventive strategy, like an extra 3 feet of elevation, would be
helpful," Christy wrote to the Inhofe EPW Press blog.
"Thinking that legislation can change sea level is hubris. I did
a calculation on what 1000 new nuclear power plants operating by
2020 would do for the IPCC best guess in the year 2100. The
answer is 1.4 cm - about half an inch (if you accept the IPCC
projection A1B for the base case.) Also, there doesn't seem to be
any acceleration of the slow trend," Christy explained.
Borenstein's AP article stated: "Ultimately, rising seas will
likely swamp the first American settlement in Jamestown, Va., as
well as the Florida launch pad that sent the first American into
orbit, many climate scientists are predicting. In about a
century, some of the places that make America what it is may be
slowly erased."
Borenstein, who only quotes six scientists in the article, of
which only one can be labeled a climate skeptic, uses the generic
phrase "several leading scientists say." [EPW Blog Note: This
blog report alone quotes nearly two dozen climate experts
countering the AP's "report" on sea level]
Borenstein's article also claims alarming sea levels "will happen
regardless of any future actions to curb greenhouse gases,
several leading scientists say. And it will reshape the nation."
"Storm surges worsened by sea level rise will flood the
waterfront getaways of rich politicians-the Bushes' Kennebunkport
and John Edwards' place on the Outer Banks. And gone will be many
of the beaches in Texas and Florida favored by budget-conscious
students on Spring Break," Borenstein's AP article continued.
But prominent scientists are speaking out and denouncing the
article a mere hours after its publication.
Here is a sampling of scientists' reaction to the AP story:
State of Florida Climatologist Dr. Jim O'Brien of Florida State
University countered the AP article.
"The best measurements of sea level rise are from satellite
instrument called altimeters. Currently they measure 14 inches in
100 years. Everyone agrees that there is no acceleration. Even
the UN IPCC quotes this," O'Brien wrote to EPW on September 23.
O'Brien is also the director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric
Prediction Studies.
"If you increase the rate of rise by four times, it will take 146
years to rise to five feet. Sea level rise is the 'scare tactic'
for these guys," O'Brien added.
Climate researcher Dr Vincent Gray, of New Zealand, an expert
reviewer on every single draft of the IPCC reports going back to
1990:
The IPCC never makes 'predictions', only 'projections'; what
might happen, or be 'likely" if you believe the assumptions in
the model. No computer model has ever been shown to be capable of
successful prediction," Gray wrote to the Inhofe EPW Press Blog
on September 23.
"Actual data on sea levels are unreliable. Long term figures are
based on tide-gauge measurements near port cities prone to
subsidence and damage of equipment from severe weather. Many
recent and more reliable measurements show little recent change.
Satellite measurements have shown a recent rise which may be
temporary," Gray added.
Dr. Boris Winterhalter, a retired Senior Research Scientist and
Coordinator for national international marine geological research
at the Geological Survey of Finland:
"Even the worst case scenario is half of that quoted by
Associated Press. This is a hype of the worst order. This whole
scare builds on GCM's which we know mimic Earth processes very
simplistically and are thus most unreliable," Winterhalter told
Inhofe EPW Press Blog on September 23.
"I, as a marine geologist, am abhorred. I just looked at the USGS
(US Geological Survey) site and am astonished that none of the
references or fact sheets seem to refer to IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report released this spring," Winterhalter added.
Prominent scientist Professor Nils-Axel Morner, declared "the
rapid rise in sea levels predicted by computer models simply
cannot happen." Morner, a leading world authority on sea levels
and coastal erosion who headed the Department of Paleogeophysics
& Geodynamics at Stockholm University, called the AP story
"propaganda." "The AP article must be regarded as an untenable
horror scenario not based in observational facts," Morner told
Inhofe EPW Press Blog, "Sea level will not rise by 1 m in 100
years. This is not even possible. Storm surges are in no way
intensified at a sea level rise. Sea level was not at all rising
'a third of a meter in the last century': only some 10 cm from
1850 to 1940," he wrote.
Morner previously noted on August 6, 2007: "When we were coming
out of the last ice age, huge ice sheets were melting rapidly and
the sea level rose at an average of one meter per century. If the
Greenland ice sheet stated to melt at the same rate - which is
unlikely - sea level would rise by less than 100 mm - 4 inches
per century." Morner, who was president of the INQUA Commission
on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution from 1999 to 2003, has
published a new booklet entitled "The Greatest Lie Ever Told," to
refute claims of catastrophic sea level rise. (LINK)
Dr. Richard S. Courtney, a climate and atmospheric science
consultant and a UN IPCC expert reviewer:
"Global sea level has been rising for the 10,000 years since the
last ice age, and no significant change to the rate of sea level
rise has been observed recently," Courtney wrote to Inhofe EPW
Press Blog on September 23.
"A continuing rise of ~2 mm/year for the next 100 years would
raise sea level by ~0.2 m as it did during the twentieth century.
And it is hard to see any justification for Andrew Weaver's claim
(as quoted by AP) that 'We're going to get a meter and there's
nothing we can do about it, unless Weaver is talking about the
next 500 years," Courtney wrote.
"Simply, there is no reason to suppose that sea level rise will
be more of a problem in this century than it was in the last
century or each of the previous ten centuries," he concluded.
Geophysicist Dr. David Deming of University of Oklahoma.
"Projections of sea-level rise are based on projections of future
warming, fifty or a hundred years hence. And these projections
are based on speculative computer models that have numerous
uncertainties," Deming wrote in a September 23, e-mail to Inhofe
EPW Press Blog.
"These models cannot even be tested; their validity is completely
unknown. In short, predictions of future sea-level rise are
nothing but sheer speculation," Deming added.
Swedish Professor Wibjorn Karlen of the Department of Social and
Economic Geography at Stockholm University:
"I have used the NASA temperature data for a study of several
major areas. As far as I can see the IPCC "Global Temperature" is
wrong. Temperature is fluctuating but it is still most places
cooler than in the 1930s and 1940s," Karlen wrote to Inhofe EPW
Press Blog regarding the AP article.
"The latest estimates of sea level rise are 1.31 mm/year. With
this water level increase it will take about 800 years before the
water level has increased by 1 m if not conditions change before
that (very likely). Society will looks very different at that
time," he added.
Emmy Nominated Meteorologist Art Horn says AP loves 'a scary
story'
"Fearless forecasts from people who likely have never made real
time, real world predictions. We who have worked in the real
world of everyday weather forecasting for decades understand what
it's like to be burned, even when you felt the forecast was a
lock. I'm of the belief that most if not all of these predictions
come from people who don't know much about the nature of
prediction," Horn wrote to Inhofe EPW Press Blog the day after
the AP article was published.
"Working with computer models that don't even start with a
climate remotely similar to the real world can't give you results
that are in any way close to useful. But the AP and all news
organizations love a scary story. I know, I worked as a TV
meteorologist for 25 years. If it will generate a buzz they will
run with it," Horn explained.
"Making predictions about how much sea level will rise helps to
insure the money train will continue. There will be people in
seats of power that will continue to feed money to universities,
research facilities and people like [NASA's] James Hansen.
Greenpeace co-founder ecologist Dr. Patrick Moore noted the AP
article was way off base from even the UN IPCC predictions.
"The IPCC predicts 18 - 59 cm, i.e. their high end is about half
predicted in the AP story, and the AP story warns of a possible
three meters," Moore told Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
"The sea was 400 feet (130 meters) lower than today at the peak
of the last Ice Age 18,000 years ago. This is an average of 72
cm/100 years. Most of this occurred between 18,000 and 6,000
years ago so there were periods when the sea rose more that 1
meter per 100 years," Moore concluded.
Former Harvard physicist Dr. Lubos Motl:
"There's no good reason to expect more than 3 millimeters per
year in average. It's been really 1.5 mm in the last 50 years,
and 2 mm per year in 1900-1950. The rate has actually slowed down
according to some papers," Motl wrote to Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
"Any model that predicts significant acceleration [of sea level]
with growing CO2 is falsified or nearly falsified by the observed
data. It's crazy to think that this slow gradual rise is anything
that would justify any actions besides the houses that have to be
either moved or protected on the centennial scale," he added.
"Any calculation that wants to indicate that the effects of sea
level rise are a significant portion of the life or the economy
is simply a miscalculation," he concluded.
Chemist and agronomist Paavo Siitam:
"Despite some doom and gloom predictions, excluding waves washing
onto shores by relatively rarely occurring tsunamis and
storm-surges, low-lying areas on the face of our planet have NOT
yet been submerged by rising oceans... so probably low-lying
areas along shorelines of Canada and the USA will be SAFE into
foreseeable and even distant futures," Siitam wrote to Inhofe EPW
Press Blog.
"By the way, I'd be happy to buy prized oceanfront properties at
bargain prices, anywhere in the world, when unwarranted, panic
selling begins. The dire predictions will not come true this
century," he added.
IPCC 2007 Expert Reviewer Dr. Madhav Khandekar, a Ph.D
meteorologist:
"I cannot help but conclude that this is one more example of
scare-mongering by some very reputed scientists in the
atmosphere/ocean science. I am disappointed to find that none of
these scientists seem to want to refer to the excellent work of
Prof Morner of Stockholm University who was the President of the
INQUA commission for Maldive Islands SLR and who has discounted &
dismissed the Maldive Islands 'disappearing' in ONE hundred years
or even earlier according to some scare-mongerers!" Khandekar
wrote to Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
"Besides Prof Morner's excellent studies, the scientists named in
the news story seem to have ignored another well-documented study
by Simon Holgate , an oceanographer in UK, whose paper in GRL(
Geophysical Research Letters, 2007) has analyzed nine long
sea-level records from 1903-2003 and the study finds that the SLR
from 1953-2003 was about 1.5 mm/yr while the SLR from 1903-1953
was about 2 mm/yr, so there is NO ESCALATING sea level rise at
present," Khandekar explained.
"If the earth's climate enters into a mini ice age by 2035-2040
as several solar scientists are suggesting now, we may NOT even
see half the sea level rise as quoted above," he added.
Atmospheric physicist Dr. Fred Singer:
"The key to Borenstein's story is the first very word:
'Ultimately.' Yes -- with sea level continuing to rise at the
rate of about seven inches per century (as it has in past
centuries), Florida will be flooded in a few 1000 years," Singer,
co-author of "Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years,"
wrote.
Singer added sea levels will rise "unless a new ice age begins
sooner -- lowering sea level -- as ocean water turns into
continental ice sheets."
Dr. Art Robinson of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine:
"Long term temperature data suggest that the current - entirely
natural and not man made - temperature rise of about 0.5 degrees
C per century could continue for another 200 years. Therefore,
the best data available leads to an extrapolated value of about 1
foot of rise during the next two centuries," Robinson explained
to Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
"There is no scientific basis upon which to guess that the rise
will be less or will be more than this value. Such a long
extrapolation over two centuries is likely to be significantly in
error - but it is the only extrapolation that can be made with
current data. There may be no sea level rise at all. No one
knows," he added.
Accuweather chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi, who specializes in
long-range forecasts, slammed the AP article for being offering
up "a series of anything can happen and probably will
statements."
"As someone who competes in the private sector and gets fired if
my forecasts are not supply enough merit to be right enough for
clients to benefit, I would welcome the kind of padding one has
in making such outrageous long range forecasts that no one still
alive will be able to verify," Bastardi explained.
Internationally known forecasting pioneer Scott Armstrong of the
Wharton School at the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania and
his colleague Kesten Green Monash University in Australia:
"Dire consequences have been predicted to arise from warming of
the Earth in coming decades of the 21st Century. Enormous sea
level rises is one of the more dramatic forecasts. According to
the AP's Borenstein, such sea-level forecasts were experts'
judgments on what will happen," Armstrong and Green wrote to
Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
"As shown in our analysis experts' forecasts have no validity in
situations characterized by high complexity, high uncertainty,
and poor feedback. To date we are unaware of any forecasts of sea
levels that adhere to proper (scientific) forecasting methodology
and our quick search on Google Scholar came up short," Armstrong
and Green explained.
"Media outlets should be clear when they are reporting on
scientific work and when they are reporting on the opinions held
by some scientists. Without scientific support for their
forecasting methods, the concerns of scientists should not be
used as a basis for public policy," they concluded.
The Viscount Christopher Monckton of Brenchley in the UK, an
advisor to the Science and Pulblic Policy Institute, who has
authored numerous climate science analyses (LINK):
"Given the absence of credible evidence for extreme sea-level
rise over the coming century in the peer-reviewed literature, the
IPCC has been compelled to reduce its sea-level estimates. The
mean centennial sea-level rise over then 10,000 years since the
end of the last Ice Age has been 4 feet per century; in the 20th
century sea level rose less than 8 inches; and the IPCC's current
central estimate is that in the coming century sea level will
rise by just 43 cm (1 ft 5 in)," Monckton wrote to Inhofe EPW
Press Blog.
Canadian Geologist Albert F. Jacobs, co-founder of the group
Friends of Science:
"Basic to the IPCC case for sea level rise and for the alarmists'
hype is the hypothesis that increasing levels of carbon dioxide
will cause increasing amounts of global warming. It should be
stressed that this assumption of truth is no more than a
hypothesis, which is increasingly being attacked and on which any
meaningful discussion has been thwarted by the IPCC's political
masters," Jacobs wrote to Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
"As far as CO2 is concerned, basic physics has always been clear
about the limitations of higher concentrations of gas to absorb
equivalent amounts of heat radiation. 'Doubling of CO2' does none
of the things the IPCC's computer says it does. And that's all
separate from the fact that water vapour is a much greater
'greenhouse' driver than carbon dioxide in any case," Jacobs
added.
Canadian economist Dr. Ross McKitrick of the University of Guelph
in Ontario (who was key in debunking the infamous "Hockey Stick")
pointed out that real estate values would be plummeting on the
coastlines if the AP article was accurate.
"If what they're saying is true, we will see the effect on land
values long before we see the effect on sea levels. They are
saying that it is certain that all sea-level waterfront property
around the US will be worthless in 50-100 years. Since the market
is very efficient at discounting future certainties into present
values, US beachfront property ought to be losing at least 20
percent of its remaining value every decade from now on,"
McKitrick wrote to Inhofe EPW Press Blog.
"It might be worth asking some real estate agents, especially in
places like Hollywood and the Hamptons, where there seems to be
such a consciousness of global warming, if beachfront owners are
beginning to dump their properties at a discount. Because, of
course, if some people have inside information that this land is
really going to be worthless soon, they'll be the first ones to
cash out and move to higher ground," he concluded.
As EPW previously reported in a comprehensive report debunking
fears of Greenland melting and a scary sea level rise, many
prominent scientists dismiss computer model fears. (LINK)
Ivy League geologist Dr. Robert Giegengack of the University of
Pennsylvania, explains that sea level is only rising up 1.8
millimeters per year (0.07 inches) -- less than the thickness of
one nickel.
"Sea level is rising," Giegengack said, but it's been rising ever
since warming set in 18,000 years ago, he explained according to
a February 2007 article in Philadelphia Magazine. "So if for
some reason this warming process that melts ice is cutting loose
and accelerating, sea level doesn't know it. And sea level, we
think, is the best indicator of global warming," he said. (LINK)
Giegengack also noted that the history of the last one billion
years on the planet reveals "only about 5% of that time has been
characterized by conditions on Earth that were so cold that the
poles could support masses of permanent ice." (LINK)
--
Regards
Bonzo
"Public broadcasters' coverage of the global warming issue
indicates their staff do not understand the difference between
sound empirical science and the virtual realities of speculative
computer modelling." Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology,
James Cook University, Townsville
date: Tue, 9 Oct 2007 12:26:59 +1000
author: Bonzo
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