In article ,
   Janet Baraclough  wrote:
> The message 
> from Jane Gillett  contains these words:

> > The point about H1N1 is not that it is a bad flu but that it is spreading
> > in a large proportion of the world ( can't remember the proportion that
> > defines a "pandemic" but H1N1 comes within it). Actually, IAGTU that as flu
> > types go it is not a very serious one; the main problem is (apart from the
> > high virus load mentioned above) that if a lot of people get it all at the
> > same time then our facilities are going to become seriously undermanned and
> > will not be able to provide the service we need. 

>         The  developed world has withstood  " service depletions " on
> many occasions; wars, 
> fuelstrikes and the 3-day week. They were temporary and therefore
> recoverable. If HINI remains mild in most people,. it should do no
> worse.

>     AIUI   the far more serious risk from the current worldwide flu
> pandemic, is ;  
>    HINI is a flu variant which has already crossed species ; it's highly
> transmissible between humans.
>  Simultaneously at large in some parts of the world, is avian flu. Avian
> flu is also a cross-species flu; but luckily, it has not 
> yet become easily transmissible between humans.  Luckily because the
> human mortality rate from avian flu is 50%.
>  The worst case scenario is that the two flu viruses will meet and
> mutate to produce  a new variant  flu virus which is highly
> transmissible between humans and has
>  a  massive mortality rate.

Yes. Absolutely. Although I cannot see the powers-that-be making that worry
public; think of the public. Also, the public is more likely to be
forgiving about a lack of service due to war than due to personnel off
sick; and wartime lack is not in the recent memory of either authorities or
public.

My response is to listen to what my personal medical expert(s) say and
follow their advice. ALthough I must admit that I am surprised about the
medical expertise which set up the doling out of Tamiflu thorough telephone
diagnosis. That can surely lead to a combination of H5N1 with, not only
H1N1, but with a form of H1N1 which is already resistant to cartain
antibiotics.

Jane


>     Janet

>   
>

-- 

Jane Gillett   :   j.gillett@higherstert.co.uk   :   Totnes, Devon.