Iraq: Al-Qaida intensifies its stranglehold in the world's most dangerous
city

Insurgents turn de facto northern capital into war zone by exploiting
divisions between Arabs and Kurds

Jonathan Steele in Mosul 
The Guardian, Monday September 15 2008 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/15/iraq.alqaida

It is the most dangerous city in the world's most dangerous country, a sad,
half-empty relic whose rich and middle classes have long since fled. To
reach it, one has to travel incognito in convoys of rundown small cars
whose drivers conceal their walkie-talkies and weapons under the seats.
Their bodyguards sometimes switch to dented taxis with shattered
windshields as an extra disguise.

Mosul - the de facto capital of northern Iraq - should have been as safe as
Basra and Baghdad if a massive military offensive by Iraqi and US forces,
which was launched in May, had succeeded. But most al-Qaida insurgents
slipped away before it began - and they are now slipping back. "They use
car bombs and roadside bombs, and target areas which used to be very safe.
Now they are assassinating people with pistols that have silencers. The
offensive was not as successful as expected," said Doraid Kashmoula, the
provincial governor. 

In June, the Americans trumpeted the killing of Abu Khalaf, who they
described as al-Qaida's local kingpin, and the "emir of Mosul". "Killing
this man didn't help. When the security forces kill one emir, they have 10
others to replace him," the governor added. 

Mosul's offensive, known as Operation Mother of Two Springs, began well,
cutting insurgent attacks by 80% in the first few days. It didn't last. In
the past month, dozens of people have been killed in violence ranging from
roadside bombs to random shootings, car bombs and attacks targeted at
specific individuals. On Saturday, four employees of a Dubai-based
television station, including the head of its office in Mosul, were
abducted and killed. 

But if the statistics only tell half the story, the other half is apparent
from the city centre, a virtual ghost town. 

"For eight months I've not seen my parents, because their neighbourhood is
in part of the city centre that is too dangerous," said Yahya Abed Mahjoub,
an official of the Islamic party which represents urban Sunni businessmen
and professionals.

That contrasts with Basra, where security is better than at any time since
2005, and Baghdad where, for the first time in three years, sunset brings
families to parks along the Tigris as the 44C heat slowly subsides. 

In Mosul, the same river flows by, unwatched. On the east bank where cafes
and restaurants once thrived, hardly a pedestrian or a car can be seen.
People flee three hours before the 10pm curfew. By day, traffic is light
and the Iraqis buying fruit at roadside stalls look anxious and under
pressure.

Al-Qaida's strength in Mosul has risen on the see-saw which has made it weak
in Anbar, Iraq's largest Sunni province. Driven out of there, al-Qaida
moved many supporters to Diyala, north of Baghdad, and to Mosul. Some Iraqi
officials, including Mosul's governor, blame logistics, in particular
al-Qaida's easy access from Mosul to northern Syria to bring in weaponry.
He says Operation Mother of Two Springs needs "more equipment, troops, and
weapons to counter them".

Al-Qaida also benefits from the absence in Mosul of al-Sahwa, the so-called
Awakening movement of Sunni tribal leaders, who successfully confronted
al-Qaida in Anbar and western suburbs of Baghdad. They oppose al-Qaida's
targeting of Shias and the importing of a conservative Salafi ideology
which was never strong in Iraq.

Al-Qaida is also exploiting one of the central struggles in Mosul, a tussle
for influence between Arabs and Kurds, claiming to be at the forefront of
resistance to what many Arabs say are Kurdish efforts to take over the
city.

Mahjoub's Islamic party is targeted for "collaborating" with the government
in Baghdad, but also with the Kurds on the provincial council. "Six of our
party's leaders here have been assassinated since the May offensive
started," Mahjoub said. The Communist party, whose Arab support comes from
the secular middle-class, has gone virtually underground in Mosul after
several leaders were killed.

The saddest part of Mosul's fate is that no one in the rest of Iraq, apart
from the Kurds, seems to care. Unlike Basra, on the border with Iran and at
the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab waterway to the Gulf, Mosul has little
strategic value. Unlike Baghdad, it has no Sunni-Shia tension because there
are few Shias. 

Mosul's few optimists are in the Iraqi army. Colonel Rebwar Yunis Abdullah,
chief of staff of the 2nd Division's 1st Infantry Brigade, says most of the
east bank of the Tigris is safe. He shows photos of huge arms caches his
men have found and produces statistics showing a 7O% decrease in insurgent
attacks since May. But he admits his area does not cover the city centre. 

He sees another good sign in the fact that Sunni Arab officers from the old
army are coming back to duty, including in the 2nd Division, which started
as a grouping of peshmergas - the Kurdish guerrillas. "Thirty per cent of
this brigade's 220 officers are Arabs, and many in top positions," he says.
The lieutenant colonel, who serves as the brigade's operations officer is
Fouad Mohammed Ali, an Arab from Baghdad. 

The colonel admits there is still a long way to go. His wife and children
live in Erbil. When he gets leave, he never goes to the centre of Mosul. He
escapes to Kurdistan.

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