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Eric Margolis: What Will Happen to Pakistan's Nukes?

Via NY Transfer News Collective  *  All the News that Doesn't Fit
 
sent by Tim Murphy - activ-l

Eric Margolis - Nov 19, 2007
http://www.ericmargolis.com/

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO PAKISTAN'S NUKES?

by Eric Margolis

NEW YORK - Henry Kissinger once quipped that being America's ally is
more dangerous than being its enemy. The latest example: Washington is
abuzz with leaks the Bush Administration plans to dump its faithful but
embattled Pakistani retainer, Gen. Pervez Musarraf, and replace him by
a new general or a cooperative civilian-led government.

This column already reported Washington's `regime change' plans a week
ago, citing vice chief of staff Gen. Afshaq Kiyani as Musharraf's most
likely replacement. As turmoil spreads across Pakistan, Musharraf's
grip on power daily grows weaker. 

White House efforts to broker a shotgun marriage between Musharraf and
Benazir Bhutto seem to have failed. She just told me there would be no
deal with Musharraf, period. But one never knows. Bhutto also told me
she was wisely reaching out to Pakistan's leading Islamic Party, Jamiat
Islami. 

For the first time, I hear Pakistanis calling Musharraf, `pharaoh.'
This is a storm warning signal. `Pharoah' is what Iranians called their
hated, US-backed Shah, and Egyptians the equally hated US-installed
dictator, Anwar Sadat. They now use the same epithet for Egypt's
current military ruler, Hosni Mubarak. The Shah was overthrown by a
popular revolution; Sadat was assassinated to national joy; and Mubarak
is in deepening trouble. 

America's profoundly counter-productive policy in the Muslim World has
been to support dictators and monarchs who follow Washington's orders,
no matter how unpopular or bitterly opposed, rather than nurturing
genuinely popular, democratic governments. 

Musharraf's nasty dictatorship is the latest example. Washington forced
him to wage war against his own Pashtun tribal citizens who support
nationalist and religious forces in Afghanistan fighting western
occupation. `Pharoah' Musharraf now appears headed for the same fate as
the Shah and Sadat. Either the army will overthrow him or, his
usefulness at an end, Washington may simply discard him.

Meanwhile, the Bush Administration is again studying military strikes
against Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon worries they could fall
into the hands of al-Qaida. Neconservatives, who have hijacked US
foreign policy, fear Pakistan's nuclear weapons - that number up to
fifty - could be seized by anti-government forces if the nation were
plunged into chaos, and somehow be used against Israel. Therefore,
neocons urge air strikes and ground attacks by US special forces to
seize or destroy Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

Pakistan's nukes are heavily guarded by special army units and military
intelligence, ISI. They are kept in components, with nuclear cores apart
from the rest of the bombs. Benazir Bhutto told me that when she was
prime minister, she asked to inspect Pakistan's main reactor at Kahuta
and its nuclear arsenal - but was refused entry by the army. 

It is highly unlikely Pakistan's nukes could fall into the hands of
mobs or al-Qaida - unless the army splinters in a power struggle. But
the weapon's precise locations are not fully known to CIA or DIA.
Chances are they are also being moved to thwart detection. Any US
attack would be bloody, dangerous, and might easily go terribly wrong.

Adding danger, a US attack on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could quickly
be joined by Pakistan's old foe, nuclear-armed India, and/or even
Israel. Both reportedly drew up plans for a `decapitating' strike
against Pakistan's nuclear arsenal in 1991 and again 1999. 

President George Bush recently claimed Iran was intent on starting
World War III. Or `World War IV,' as the crazies who now advise
presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani call it. We are looking at an
apocalyptic war all right, but not started by Iran. An American attack
on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, or an all-out attack on Iran, could
amply fill the bill. 

Three things restrain Bush and mentor Dick Cheney from unleashing war
against Iran: need to use three secret US bases in Pakistan to attack
eastern Iran; Pentagon opposition; and growing warnings from Russia's
Vladimir Putin. Political chaos in Pakistan has thrown a spanner into
neocon plans for World War IV. 

                             ***

AUDIO:

Pakistan: Chickens Coming Home to Roost (Eric Margolis)

Eric Margolis, foreign correspondent for Sun National Media in Canada,
discusses the turmoil in Pakistan, the Pakistani population's growing
hatred for the United States for propping up their dictatorship and
growing belief that the U.S. is waging a war on Islam itself,
Musharraf's relationship with the Pakistani Army, Benazir Bhutto's
People's Party, the possibility of a power-sharing arrangement, their
conflict with India over Kashmir, American backing of various
terrorists against Iran and the catastrophe that is Iraq.

Audio:
http://wiredispatch.com/charles/aw111607ericmargolis.mp3
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