Press Release: 10.09.07
Las Vegas Insider
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A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A PROFESSIONAL SPORTS HANDICAPPER

When things are going 'right' - as predicted during the first four (4) weeks 
of college football - the life of a wagering professional is truly 'sweet'.

When things go 'awry' - such as the 'insanity' of these past two weeks  in 
college football - life suddenly becomes 'bittersweet'.

So, how does a professional 'deal' with it all?

They take the bitter *with* the sweetŠ

>>> To Join "Listen To Louie" - see the web address at the end of this 
analysis.

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In the early weeks of the college football season you can rely on defenses 
(historically) being stronger than offenses.

Talent 'rules' in the first few weeks, as teams start developing 
personalities and tendencies emerge.

Typically (and historically) there is one (1) week in the season where there 
are a 'rash' of upsets.

However, there has never (and I repeat 'never') been a 'plague' of upsets 
like there have been in the past two (2) weeks.

What has happened these past two weeks is absolutely 'unprecedented' in the 
long-storied history of college football.

Yes, there have been some 'unbelievable' things happen in the past - but 
nothing even-comes-close to the bizarre unraveling of some teams in recent 
weeks past.

And so I 'keep the faith' - confident that thorough research and analysis 
will (once again) 'rule the day'.

Much like Vegas casinos bank on their odds of winning a calculated percentage 
of money at their 'table games' (like blackjack, craps, roulette, etc).

That said, here are my opinions for what is to come:

-----  TEAMS YOU CAN COUNT ON:

1) LSU: By far the best team in the country. LOTS of character and talent (on 
both sides of the ball) - and, most importantly - they are playing like a 
TEAM. There comeback win over Florida - with 5 of 5 fourth-down conversions 
in the second half - is proof of this team's character.

2) Ohio State: They may be young, but they are a tenacious young TEAM - with 
lots of character.

3) Cincinnati: Tons of talent, but TEAM-play is what carries them to victory. 
Best turnover margin in the country - with a *staggering* +25.

4) Boston College: Matt Ryan is a good quarterback and a great leader. BC 
will follow Ryan to an outstanding season.

5) South Carolina: Spurrier has himself a TEAM this year. Yes, they lost to 
LSU - who is simply a 'better' TEAM.

Why do I say you can 'count on' them?

Because they are playing consistently good football (week-end and week-out)  
and consistency shows the 'character' of a football team (and what they are 
made of).

The 'operative' word here (of course) is TEAM.

-----  TEAMS YOU CANNOT COUNT ON:

1) Texas: Not even their talented QB McCoy can carry this football 'club' 
(note the lack of the word 'team'). Too many injuries, suspensions and 
off-field fiascos don't help.

2) Oklahoma: OU has (perhaps) the most-talent of any football
'team' in the country. Size and speed (on both sides of the ball), a bevy of 
highly-skilled (All-American type) receivers and running backs, along with a 
QB in Bradford that 'should' annihilate any-team they would play.

Then WHY is Oklahoma suddenly floundering?
Because they simply cannot defend against the pass.
They WILL  lose another game - to a 'lesser team' with a passing attack (like 
Texas Tech - maybe even Oklahoma State).

3) USC: Too 'banged up' with injuries and a 'damning' loss in confidence in 
the last two weeks. Losing to STANFORD (are you KIDDING ME???). USC will lose 
one or two more games before this season is over (Oregon and Cal - both on 
the road).

-----  TEAMS THAT ARE SCHIZOPHRENIC:

1) Clemson: Arguably has the-best running back tandem in the country - that 
is going no-where.

2) UCLA: First lost to Utah? Then bounces back to beat Washington, then 
Oregon State - then LOSE to Notre Dame??? This 'ballclub' is all over the map 
(and needs some medication).

3) Georgia: This 'ballclub' is on one of the wildest rides (and most 
unpredictable seasons) I have ever-seen. Who are these guys? I am steering 
WAY clear of Georgia from here on out.

4) Georgia Tech: This ballclub has a SERIOUS identity crisis on their hands. 
I am running the other way from the state of Georgia (which is in a 'state of 
confusion').

5) Kansas State: Whooped Texas, then bowed to Kansas (a good team, however). 
Problem is K-State cannot stop the run, and cannot run themselves. On both 
sides of the ball they are only 'fair to good', as well.

Why do I say they are schizophrenic?

Because you don't know which 'team' (personality) is going to show up each 
week.

----- TEAMS TO JUST STAY AWAY FROM - PERIOD.

1) Oklahoma State: This ballclub is just a joke. They tackle like sissies and 
have NO character at-all. And a total lack of discipline - which I blame on 
Coach Gundy. If Oklahoma State can find a way to LOSE a game, they will 
search DESPERATELY to find a way to do so.

2) Nebraska: A 'pretender', not a contender (at-all). Black-shirts on 
defense? More like 'pink' shirts.

3) Miami: These guys don't have an identity. They have 'left the building' 
(with Elvis). Losing to North Carolina (33-27)? Come On.

4) Louisville: It doesn't matter if Louisville is 'capable' of scoring 70 
points a game - because their defense (or lack-of) will give up 75. Their 
band could probably play better defense.

----- TEAMS 'ON THE BUBBLE':

1) California: Yes, they are undefeated - and yes they beat Oregon. But, 
Oregon was their only 'real' significant' win (Tennessee was not, 45-31). 
They have given up a lot of points against some 'cupcakes' - like winless 
Colorado State (in a very un-impressive win, 34-28) and Arizona (45-27). Yes, 
they have a potent offense, however their DEFENSE is 'suspect'.

2) South Florida: Great Defense, Fair Offense. Playing as a 'team', but 
without a potent offensive attack they may face some trouble (read in 
"Cincinnati"). Ecked out (impressive) wins against Auburn (26-23) and 
recently West Virginia (21-13) - with their DEFENSE, not their offense. Great 
teams are balanced and South Florida is not.

3) Missouri: Why is Missouri not getting the 'love' of an undefeated team? 
Because they don't really deserve it yet. There most-impressive wins are 
against Illinois (40-34) and Nebraska (41-6), the latter (of course) is 
not-that impressive. Let's see what they can do against OklahomaŠ

4) West Virginia: Losing to South Florida was a real 'eye-opener' when it 
came to the 'temerity' of this team (and I still think they are a 'team'). 
South Florida's stout-defense shut-down the vaunted running game of WV - and 
a litany of turnovers spelled disaster. Only Cincinnati poses a 'real' threat 
to West Virginia (there is Cincy again!) Rutgers? Maybe

5) Connecticut: Undefeated? Yes. Played anybody? No. Virginia 'may' pose a 
test for Uconn. Then its "Katie Bar The Door!" with South Florida, Rutgers, 
Cincinnati (keeps popping up!) - and West Virginia in the ensuing weeks.

6) Oregon: They do-have a dynamic offense that is putting up A LOT of points 
- and their only defeat was to California (in a hard-fought 31-24 loss). They 
will beat Washington State and then its Washington, USC and Arizona State. A 
brutal three-game stretch.

7) Florida: The reason I say Florida is a team 'on the bubble' is because of 
its reliance on QB Tim Tebow. In today's college football, is-there a better 
natural-born leader than Tim Tebow? The answer is no.  And therein lies the 
problem. As goes Tebow, so go the Gators. IF Tebow gets hurt (or too banged 
up) say "Bye-bye" to Florida.

8) Illinois: The Fighting Illini *are* the 'real-deal' with back-to-back wins 
over Penn State (a 'good' albeit 'conservative' team) and Wisconsin 
(overrated, but still a 'good' team). A re-ignited Michigan team 'may' give 
them 'some' trouble, and Ohio State will beat them (at Ohio State). Still, 
this is a *solid* TEAM and playing like one. Look for a 10-2 or 9-3 season 
out of them.

---------- And That's  a Wrap:

I started out doing this for you - then, as I got 'into' writing this I 
(also) realized I was doing it for myself (as well).

After the past two weeks I guess I (too) needed some 'reaffirmation' of my 
prediction skills - because what has recently happened HAS left me (and the 
entire wagering world) 'reeling'.

Despite the INSANITY of these past two weeks I remain absolutely confident in 
my ability to predict (rationale) outcomes in college football games.

I have been doing it (successfully) year-end and year-out  for over 10 years 
now - and I optimistic that the one-thing that 'pays off' in all of this is 
'knowledge'.

"Knowledge is Power" - and if you do your 'homework' (ie. my thorough 
'research and analysis') - then you will 'pass' the test of time.

Hang in there and don't panic.

Things will return to normal - history proves this to be true.

Wager & Win,

Louie "The LinesMaker"

http://contrarytoordinary.com/listentolouie.html

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Louie is a member of The CTO Society and their Resident Expert on all aspects 
of College Football.

LinesMaker is the *official* sportsbook for The CTO Society.