Pat's Note Humm. Drawing maps about the progress of FMD 2001 was a
speciality of uk.business.agriculture's Politburo once.

I see these scientists have gone back to 1967 for reliable data. 

They obviously know that was the last occasion we had a State
Veterinary Service that was better than a bunch of unreliable con men
with a taste for pratting about on TV.

Pretty well everything about 2001 was a disgrace. The data will be
nonsense, Not even the index case was real.

Was Pirbright 2007 any better?

You can't help feeling that this model is late and already
out-of-date.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7582760.stm

27 August 2008 13:46 UK

Model targets foot-and-mouth risk  
By Elizabeth Mitchell 
Science Reporter, BBC News  
 
Restrictions are imposed during foot-and-mouth outbreaks. 
UK scientists have found a way to quickly identify livestock at risk
from infection through airborne transmission of the foot-and-mouth
virus. 

The control of foot-and-mouth outbreaks is of global socio-economic
importance. 

Researchers have created a simple risk model by combining weather and
livestock information collected during the 1967 UK foot-and-mouth
outbreak. 

It may be possible to automate the system, the scientists suggest in
the Journal of the Royal Society. 

Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth - a highly contagious disease of
cloven-hoofed animals - cause severe disruption to the farming sector
and economy. 

Dr Schley from the Pirbright Laboratory at the Institute for Animal
Health in Surrey explained that transmission of the virus between
different premises can mostly be controlled by implementing stringent
control measures: 

"You can stop animal movements, try to enforce bio-security on farms
and try and make sure people disinfect themselves," he told BBC News. 

However, airborne transmissions are particularly difficult to control:
"All we can do is try to detect and contain such transmissions
afterwards," explained Dr Schley. 

Airborne transmission of virus particles is influenced by the wind and
atmospheric turbulence. 

Dr David Schley and colleagues used NAME in their study - a system
that has been developed by the UK Meteorological Office to predict the
weather. 

They also incorporated details about the source of the virus -
including the number of animals infected. 

The model was tested by applying it to the recent 2007 UK outbreak in
Surrey. 

Data deficient 

The scientists recognise that successful implementation of these
predictions requires accurate information regarding the location of
animals before any outbreak occurs.  
Foot and mouth has a devastating impact on farming. 

The independent review of the 2007 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak by Dr
Iain Anderson included recommendations for improved "data and
information management systems". 

"(Currently), we know where the owner of the animals lives, but that
is slightly different from knowing where the animal is. If that
information was available you could make some useful and powerful
predictions in terms of risk," said Dr Schley. 

He added: "The level of information that I would like the UK to aspire
to has already been achieved by other countries - including New
Zealand." 

A well-coordinated and reliable data system could be automated: "The
next day (we) would be able to say, these are the farms that we feel
are the priority for inspection." 

Scientists at the Institute for Animal Health have developed other
models for predicting the transmission of other viral diseases that
affect livestock: 

"(Bluetongue) is spread by midges - but they can be affected by which
way the wind blows because they are so tiny and light," commented Dr
Schley. 

-- 
Regards
Pat Gardiner
Release the results of testing British pigs for MRSA and C.Diff now!
www.go-self-sufficient.com  and http://animal-epidemics.blogspot.com/