Just had a look at Thursdays fare and what a card at Sandown tomorrow 
evening,Group and Listed class abounds :-)))

Time for Bible study *GRIN*
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"

On May 28, 10:31 pm, "batezee"  wrote:
> Just had a look at Thursdays fare and what a card at Sandown tomorrow
> evening,Group and Listed class abounds :-)))
>
> Time for Bible study *GRIN*
> --
> David
>
> "That Damn Butterfly"

Sandown 6:10 TRANS SIBERIAN
Sandown 6:40 ICESOLATOR
Sandown 7:10 ALLEGRETTO
Sandown 7:40 PIPEDREAMER/MARAAHEL
Sandown 8:10 VIRTUAL
Sandown 8:40 CACTUS ROSE

The ground is likely to be the key tonight, I've used a combination of
ratings, breeding analysis and those most suited to soft conditions to
come up with a shortlist in each race.

Sandown 6:10

My top-form rated runner Punjabi is a short-priced favourite for this
after a decent win last time against what looked a progressive rival.
Still potentially well handicapped compared to his hurdles mark, I
have him top-rated for this. However, the drop back to 10f, the 6lb
penalty and the soft ground are unlikely to be in his favour here
tonight so I think he is worth taking on. His sire has only a 3%
strike-rate from 32 runners over this trip compared to 14% over 12f
and his progeny have a better strike-rate on faster ground.

2nd on my ratings is TRANS SIBERIAN. He is by Soviet Star whose
progeny only have a 7.2% s/r over 10f but this is a stiff 10f and of
more relevance is his sires progeny's 18.2% s/r over 11f and the fact
they have a better record on softer than fast ground.

3rd on my ratings is Alpes Maritimes. His sire Danehill Dancer and his
progeny definitely show a preference for give underfoot. Probably in
need of the race last time and should strip fitter today.

The other Danehill Dacner is John Gosden's Novikov who is open to
improvement and was ahead of Alpes last time but crucially a long way
behind Trans Siberian in April.

=======================================================================

Sandown 6:40

My top-form rated runner in the National Stakes is ICESOLATOR who is
bidding for the hat-trick here for Hannon who has an excellent record
in this race. Has already won on good to soft ground and One Cool Cat
is proving to be a decent sire of sprinters with a 28% s/r from his 25
runners so far. Looks the value.

I have 3 joint-2nd in my ratings, Finjaan, Foundation Room and Calypso
Girl. Calypso Girl is the only one of those 3 proven on soft ground
and has a change to reverse placings with Foundation Room on this
ground with a 9lb pull so could be a bit of e/w value with her sire
Verglas being an influence on soft and over 5f. Foundation Room though
could still confirm form and be effective on soft ground as he did win
on it and is a Sadler's Wells himself.

=======================================================================

Sandown 7:15

I have ALLEGRETTO 'just' ahead of Royal and Regal and Finalmente on my
form ratings here. This 2 mile trip on soft will take some getting
here. Galileo is proving to be an excellent influence for stamina with
his progeny having a decent 21% strike-rate over 2m from 34 runners
and 14% on soft. Conditions will be similar to last year when he won
this race and he could be a cup horse this year for Stoute who always
improves his older horses and he could be the value.

Jockey club cup winner Royal and Regal will have conditions in his
favour and has the benefit of a few runs already this season. Although
he has proven he stays, strangely enough his sire Sadler's Wells have
only a 7% strike-rate with 2-milers.

=======================================================================

Sandown 7:45

Last year's Leger winner Lucarno tops my form figures here. He did
well to win that last year as he looks more a 12f horse. I remain to
be convinced though about the relevant strength of his form in his
races  with the likes of Mahler, Yellowstone and his Ascot conqueror
Boscobel all not showing much afterwards. The GP1 penalty on his
seasonal debut makes it equally tough for him so I'll skip him.

Preference is for his stablemate PIPEDREAMER who I will always have a
special place for after landing a touch in the Cambridgeshire. Bred by
Selkirk he shouldn't mind the cut and looks the one to beat here. 10/3
looks a fair bet.

If Lucarno proves to be in need of the race then the main danger could
be from the grand campaigner MARAAHEL who may be worth an e/w. His
form at his best stands head and shoulders above this lot and
conditions should suit.

Of the rest look out for a big run from the unexposted Charlie
Farnsbarns. Although he is by Cape Cross, he has won on soft and
although it will be a step up, he is worth keeping an eye on.

==========================================================================

Sandown 8:20

I have Redolent top-rated and he may have been worth a small e/w bet
but with a field of 7 it's not so appealing so I will just go with
VIRTUAL who I was really impressed with last time. He is bred to be
really good by Pivotal out of a dam who is from the family of
Entrepreneur. Entered in the St James Palace I can see further
improvement with the step up to a mile on this softer surface and he
will take the beating.

==========================================================================

Sandown 8:50

Dubai Destination's seem to be appreciative of better ground over a
mile so I am slightly worried over my top-form rated Bahar Shumaal.
The one I like is CACTUS ROSE who is by Zamindar out of a Red Ransom
mare. The sire's progeny have a decent strike-rate over both ground
and distance and as a c&d winner has to be respected. I would hope to
get better than the current best 6/1 though for an e/w bet.

"batezee"  wrote in message 
news:6a6190F3564ghU1@mid.individual.net...
> Just had a look at Thursdays fare and what a card at Sandown tomorrow 
> evening,Group and Listed class abounds :-)))
>
> Time for Bible study *GRIN*
> -- 
> David
>
> "That Damn Butterfly"
>
Well here`s my view of the races , bearing in mind the list of non runners 
has been growing and therefore the betting will be affected accordingly :-(

6.10 PUNJABI ,a classy hurdler and showed he is no back number on the flat 
by winning 6 days ago.He would seem to have plenty in hand.No price at the 
moment.

6.40 FOUNDATION ROOM looked very useful on his winning debut,more to do here 
but decent odds make him a bit of value to follow up here imo

7.15 ROYAL AND REGAL is hard to oppose but now odds on with significant 
withdrawls.

7.345 PIPEDREAMER could move up to Group class tonight,I`ll be looking for 
SMOKEY OAKEY as a decent ew who loves this going and might spring a surprise 
;-)

Its a crying shame so many are withdrawing because last night it looked so 
much a cracking card :-(
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"

"batezee"  wrote in message 
news:6a7s8dF36b814U1@mid.individual.net...
>
> "batezee"  wrote in message 
> news:6a6190F3564ghU1@mid.individual.net...
>> Just had a look at Thursdays fare and what a card at Sandown tomorrow 
>> evening,Group and Listed class abounds :-)))
>>
>> Time for Bible study *GRIN*
>> -- 
>> David
>>
>> "That Damn Butterfly"
>>
> Well here`s my view of the races , bearing in mind the list of non runners 
> has been growing and therefore the betting will be affected accordingly 
> :-(
>
> 6.10 PUNJABI ,a classy hurdler and showed he is no back number on the flat 
> by winning 6 days ago.He would seem to have plenty in hand.No price at the 
> moment.
>
> 6.40 FOUNDATION ROOM looked very useful on his winning debut,more to do 
> here but decent odds make him a bit of value to follow up here imo
>
> 7.15 ROYAL AND REGAL is hard to oppose but now odds on with significant 
> withdrawls.
>
> 7.345 PIPEDREAMER could move up to Group class tonight,I`ll be looking for 
> SMOKEY OAKEY as a decent ew who loves this going and might spring a 
> surprise ;-)
>
> Its a crying shame so many are withdrawing because last night it looked so 
> much a cracking card :-(
> -- 
> David
>
> "That Damn Butterfly"
>

I don't see the point in running Punjabi in a Flat race worth less than £5K 
to the winner. Why put more miles on the clock for that money for a Group 1 
winning Hurdler. If they must run on the flat,  with a 75 rating he could 
possibly win a better race than this. Originally he was a Miler, last time 
12F and now 10F. What next?
Derek. 



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"DerekF"  wrote in message 
news:1212084074_302288@news.usenet.com...
>
> "batezee"  wrote in message 
> news:6a7s8dF36b814U1@mid.individual.net...
>>
>> "batezee"  wrote in message 
>> news:6a6190F3564ghU1@mid.individual.net...
>>> Just had a look at Thursdays fare and what a card at Sandown tomorrow 
>>> evening,Group and Listed class abounds :-)))
>>>
>>> Time for Bible study *GRIN*
>>> -- 
>>> David
>>>
>>> "That Damn Butterfly"
>>>
>> Well here`s my view of the races , bearing in mind the list of non 
>> runners has been growing and therefore the betting will be affected 
>> accordingly :-(
>>
>> 6.10 PUNJABI ,a classy hurdler and showed he is no back number on the 
>> flat by winning 6 days ago.He would seem to have plenty in hand.No price 
>> at the moment.
>>
>> 6.40 FOUNDATION ROOM looked very useful on his winning debut,more to do 
>> here but decent odds make him a bit of value to follow up here imo
>>
>> 7.15 ROYAL AND REGAL is hard to oppose but now odds on with significant 
>> withdrawls.
>>
>> 7.345 PIPEDREAMER could move up to Group class tonight,I`ll be looking 
>> for SMOKEY OAKEY as a decent ew who loves this going and might spring a 
>> surprise ;-)
>>
>> Its a crying shame so many are withdrawing because last night it looked 
>> so much a cracking card :-(
>> -- 
>> David
>>
>> "That Damn Butterfly"
>>
>
> I don't see the point in running Punjabi in a Flat race worth less than 
> £5K to the winner. Why put more miles on the clock for that money for a 
> Group 1 winning Hurdler. If they must run on the flat,  with a 75 rating 
> he could possibly win a better race than this. Originally he was a Miler, 
> last time 12F and now 10F. What next?
> Derek.

I would add Derek that it maybe fun for the connections running PUNJABI in 
this grade but not for is fans who want to earn a few quid off his successes 
:-( There was no way i could back him to make a few quid at that price.Won 
as expected.

I had a couple of bob on FOUNDATION ROOM but not too much as the real value 
went with his price :-( even with only 7 runners.

Could not back ROYAL AND REGAL at his price which was just as well.

Backed both my sels in  SMOKEY OAKEY ew and PIPEDREAMER win,wasn`t a lot of 
fun watching PIPEDREAMER last all the way and SMOKEY OAKEY in midfield but 
when the race started in earnest they gradually got into it,I though MARAHEL 
had the race but no SMOKEY OAKEY battled on to get up with PIPEDREAMER 
3rd..for once the early price I  taken of 33-1 SMOKEY OAKEY was even better 
value than the 20-1 sp,I had him around 12s in my book with PIPEDREAMER 6/4.

Strange evening with the persistent rain causing some havoc with the decs 
but in the end very profitable *GRIN* more vouchers for the Holiday(5 days 
to go)

I wonder if Ron was lurking? lol
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"

"batezee"  wrote in message 
news:6a8e4qF31ih6jU1@mid.individual.net...
>
> "DerekF"  wrote in message 
> news:1212084074_302288@news.usenet.com...
>>
>> "batezee"  wrote in message 
>> news:6a7s8dF36b814U1@mid.individual.net...
>>>
>>> "batezee"  wrote in message 
>>> news:6a6190F3564ghU1@mid.individual.net...
>>>> Just had a look at Thursdays fare and what a card at Sandown tomorrow 
>>>> evening,Group and Listed class abounds :-)))
>>>>
>>>> Time for Bible study *GRIN*
>>>> -- 
>>>> David
>>>>
>>>> "That Damn Butterfly"
>>>>
>>> Well here`s my view of the races , bearing in mind the list of non 
>>> runners has been growing and therefore the betting will be affected 
>>> accordingly :-(
>>>
>>> 6.10 PUNJABI ,a classy hurdler and showed he is no back number on the 
>>> flat by winning 6 days ago.He would seem to have plenty in hand.No price 
>>> at the moment.
>>>
>>> 6.40 FOUNDATION ROOM looked very useful on his winning debut,more to do 
>>> here but decent odds make him a bit of value to follow up here imo
>>>
>>> 7.15 ROYAL AND REGAL is hard to oppose but now odds on with significant 
>>> withdrawls.
>>>
>>> 7.345 PIPEDREAMER could move up to Group class tonight,I`ll be looking 
>>> for SMOKEY OAKEY as a decent ew who loves this going and might spring a 
>>> surprise ;-)
>>>
>>> Its a crying shame so many are withdrawing because last night it looked 
>>> so much a cracking card :-(
>>> -- 
>>> David
>>>
>>> "That Damn Butterfly"
>>>
>>
>> I don't see the point in running Punjabi in a Flat race worth less than 
>> £5K to the winner. Why put more miles on the clock for that money for a 
>> Group 1 winning Hurdler. If they must run on the flat,  with a 75 rating 
>> he could possibly win a better race than this. Originally he was a Miler, 
>> last time 12F and now 10F. What next?
>> Derek.
>
> I would add Derek that it maybe fun for the connections running PUNJABI in 
> this grade but not for is fans who want to earn a few quid off his 
> successes :-( There was no way i could back him to make a few quid at that 
> price.Won as expected.
>
> I had a couple of bob on FOUNDATION ROOM but not too much as the real 
> value went with his price :-( even with only 7 runners.
>
> Could not back ROYAL AND REGAL at his price which was just as well.
>
> Backed both my sels in  SMOKEY OAKEY ew and PIPEDREAMER win,wasn`t a lot 
> of fun watching PIPEDREAMER last all the way and SMOKEY OAKEY in midfield 
> but when the race started in earnest they gradually got into it,I though 
> MARAHEL had the race but no SMOKEY OAKEY battled on to get up with 
> PIPEDREAMER 3rd..for once the early price I  taken of 33-1 SMOKEY OAKEY 
> was even better value than the 20-1 sp,I had him around 12s in my book 
> with PIPEDREAMER 6/4.
>
> Strange evening with the persistent rain causing some havoc with the decs 
> but in the end very profitable *GRIN* more vouchers for the Holiday(5 days 
> to go)
>
> I wonder if Ron was lurking? lol
> -- 
> David
>
> "That Damn Butterfly"
Unfortunately failed to pick up on that one David, not like me!  Well done 
though!

Ron

"batezee"  wrote in message
news:6a8e4qF31ih6jU1@mid.individual.net...
>
> "DerekF"  wrote in message
> news:1212084074_302288@news.usenet.com...
>>
>> "batezee"  wrote in message
>> news:6a7s8dF36b814U1@mid.individual.net...
>>>
>>> "batezee"  wrote in message
>>> news:6a6190F3564ghU1@mid.individual.net...
>>>> Just had a look at Thursdays fare and what a card at Sandown tomorrow
>>>> evening,Group and Listed class abounds :-)))
>>>>
>>>> Time for Bible study *GRIN*
>>>> -- 
>>>> David
>>>>
>>>> "That Damn Butterfly"
>>>>
>>> Well here`s my view of the races , bearing in mind the list of non
>>> runners has been growing and therefore the betting will be affected
>>> accordingly :-(
>>>
>>> 6.10 PUNJABI ,a classy hurdler and showed he is no back number on the
>>> flat by winning 6 days ago.He would seem to have plenty in hand.No price
>>> at the moment.
>>>
>>> 6.40 FOUNDATION ROOM looked very useful on his winning debut,more to do
>>> here but decent odds make him a bit of value to follow up here imo
>>>
>>> 7.15 ROYAL AND REGAL is hard to oppose but now odds on with significant
>>> withdrawls.
>>>
>>> 7.345 PIPEDREAMER could move up to Group class tonight,I`ll be looking
>>> for SMOKEY OAKEY as a decent ew who loves this going and might spring a
>>> surprise ;-)
>>>
>>> Its a crying shame so many are withdrawing because last night it looked
>>> so much a cracking card :-(
>>> -- 
>>> David
>>>
>>> "That Damn Butterfly"
>>>
>>
>> I don't see the point in running Punjabi in a Flat race worth less than
>> £5K to the winner. Why put more miles on the clock for that money for a
>> Group 1 winning Hurdler. If they must run on the flat,  with a 75 rating
>> he could possibly win a better race than this. Originally he was a Miler,
>> last time 12F and now 10F. What next?
>> Derek.
>
> I would add Derek that it maybe fun for the connections running PUNJABI in
> this grade but not for is fans who want to earn a few quid off his
> successes :-( There was no way i could back him to make a few quid at that
> price.Won as expected.
>
> I had a couple of bob on FOUNDATION ROOM but not too much as the real
> value went with his price :-( even with only 7 runners.
>
> Could not back ROYAL AND REGAL at his price which was just as well.
>
> Backed both my sels in  SMOKEY OAKEY ew and PIPEDREAMER win,wasn`t a lot
> of fun watching PIPEDREAMER last all the way and SMOKEY OAKEY in midfield
> but when the race started in earnest they gradually got into it,I though
> MARAHEL had the race but no SMOKEY OAKEY battled on to get up with
> PIPEDREAMER 3rd..for once the early price I  taken of 33-1 SMOKEY OAKEY
> was even better value than the 20-1 sp,I had him around 12s in my book
> with PIPEDREAMER 6/4.
>
> Strange evening with the persistent rain causing some havoc with the decs
> but in the end very profitable *GRIN* more vouchers for the Holiday(5 days
> to go)
>
> I wonder if Ron was lurking? lol
> -- 
> David
>
> "That Damn Butterfly"
Fancy going on your hols and missing the Oaks and Derby. I usually go away
when the Chelt Festival is on:-)
Derek.




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