A few key races for this are the Pierse Hurdle and the Paddy Power 
Handicap Hurdle at Sandown in December. 3 candidates from those two 
races include -:

Wingman (3rd at Sandown)
Roman Villa (4th in Pierse)
Jayo (5th in Pierse)

Apart from last year when there was a shock, the previous 9 winners were 
rated in the 130/140 range, the average being 138 so I would kind of be 
willing to consider marking those down from Blue Bajan and below.

Apart from last year all winners had finished 1st or 2nd last time out, 
unless they had a top-6 finish in the Pierse so that helps to narrow 
things down to 7 -:

Streets Of Gold
Missis Potts
Palomar
Five Dream
County Zen
Roman Villa
Jayo

Punjabi apart, the highest-rated in this race are on 140 which is lower 
than usual for this race so it's not beyond the realms of possibility 
that one lower down could score, so applying that rough rule I would 
also include Blue Bajan, Dancer's Serenade and Mohayer who all finished 
1st/2nd last time.

This race tends to go to younger runners but apart from a few, that 
doesn't help narrow the list down.

Those in the first 3 in the betting have won 6 from the last 10 so the 
likes of Five Dream, Blue Bajan and Palomar stand out from those listed 
above.

This is a tough race for novices, Make A Stand was the last one to do so 
and he was Champion Hurdle class...is Five Dream that good ? I'm not so 
sure and the price is short enough for the youngest runner in the race, 
if not the last 10 years. If I had to choose I would go for PALOMAR as 
the main choice, he was seriously impressive last time clocking a decent 
speed figure in the process and fits all the relevant stats.

If I had to pick an outsider to make the frame it would probably be 
County Zen at 14's who won a hot introductory hurdle beating the likes 
of Blue Bajan and Song of Songs. He rallied gamely to win on heavy 
ground last time and could go well but again is a novice who could find 
it tough. The one I prefer though is Roman Villa who ran so well in the 
Pierse Hurdle on softer than ideal going and who had earlier ran Jack 
The Giant close at Cheltenham. He is around 12/1 mark so I'll go for him 
as an e/w bet but also maybe have County Zen with a bookie paying down 
to 5 places.