Cheltenham - Sun Alliance Chase

I like to take a look at some of the Cheltenham races in advance, not 
necessarily to pick out an ante-post selection but it often helps on the 
day if you have done a bit of analysis, helps you save a bit of time if 
you already have a workable shortlist and know a few of the contenders 
history etc.

I'm starting off with the Sun Alliance, a few stats first - this race 
can throw up the odd shock, and only one favourite (Denman) winning in 
the last 10 years but generally it falls to a horse in the 2nd-5th 
favourite range. Most winners are 7 or 8 years of age with only Star of 
Mohaison(5) and Florida Pearl(6) outside of this age range. Worth 
bearing in mind though that few Frenchies/5yo's have lined up for this 
race and those that do generally run very well, so pay attention to any 
(particularly French breds). Florida Pearl and Rule Supreme have scored 
for Ireland but generally they have a poor record in the race although 
Willie Mullins runners should be given a second look. The last 10 
winners all finished 1st or 2nd on their previous outing. Also tend to 
prefer grinders rather than flashy sorts ;-)

I really like the current favourite Joe Lively, very gutsy and impressed 
me a lot in the Feltham at Kempton over Xmas but Feltham winners have an 
overall poor record in the Sun Alliance. In fact (if I remember rightly) 
no winner of the Feltham has followed up since the 70's although don't 
quote me for definite on that, the reason being that Kempton is 
generally a flat, speedy track and it requires a different kind of 
plodder/stayer to win the staying novice event at the festival.

The Reynoldstown at Ascot in mid-Feb has an equally poor record, 
possibly because Ascot fences are tough, the race can be competitive and 
it is quite close to the festival so bear that in mind next month but 
the Worcester Chase has thrown up a couple of winners recently in One 
Knight and Lord Noellie.

Horses in the frame in the Feltham have fared quite a bit better with 
the likes of One Knight and Rule Supreme placing there and going on to 
score at the festival. Silverburn was 3rd in the Feltham but will 
probably be stepped down in trip as it looked like he failed to stay but 
HERE'S JOHNNY is a different matter entirely, he was unsuited by the 
slowish pace and was only outspeeded by the winner after making a slight 
mistake at the last fence.
Previously, Here's Johnny was unlucky when hampered at Newbury in the 
'Worcester' and would have beaten Joe Lively that day so at twice the 
price he is the first on my shortlist at odds of around 25's. The only 
negative I have is that he is a 9 year old, but a lightly raced one for 
his age so it's not such a problem and he will stay all day as he showed 
at Perth and Uttoxeter when scoring well previously.

Paul Nicholls has won the last 2 renewals of this race, notably 2 years 
ago with a French-bred 5yo who had placed in the 'Dipper' on New Year's 
Day. I am a great believer of trainers following repeatable paths with 
their best horses so I think 'Dipper' runner-up PREDATEUR is of great 
interest for the Sun Alliance for the champion trainer whose only other 
obvious candidate for the race is Nevada Royale (although he had a 
crushing fall in the Feltham). Predateur was outspeeded behind Moon Over 
Miami at Cheltenham over 2 miles. Next time he was running really well 
until making a stopping blunder before recovering to finish 4th to the 
useful Tidal Bay. Were it not for that he would have finished a lot 
closer. Last time out he improved again to run a decent 2nd to Lead On 
in the 'Dipper' and the 3 mile trip could be just what he needs.
Considering Lead On is 25/1 and reportedly heading for the Jewson, 
Predateur makes appeal at the best price 33/1 currently available, 
especially given that he will receive a decent weight allowance on the 
day but I would like to see him have another race by the end of the month.

Of the other runners, there are two I really like. Useful hurdler GOLD 
MEDALLIST put up a superb effort after a very long abscence AND on his 
chase debut when 2nd in the aforementioned Cheltenham race won by Tidal 
Bay. Hard to imagine he will not line up for this race and that was 
possibly the best debut chase effort of the season so far in the 
cirumstances. 20/1 looks huge at this stage considering a lot of those 
ahead of him in the betting are unlikely to line up and the fact he 
represents a top yard. Possibly running on Sunday at Market Rasen.

ALBERTAS RUN for Jonjo is another very decent hurdler who looks a smart 
chase prospect. Scored on his chase debut before running into Tidal Bay. 
However, although beaten 22 lengths at the end, that doesn't tell the 
whole story as he found the trip sharp enough, made a couple of key 
mistakes and would have finished closer but for that. He was much more 
assured when scoring next time from Sizing Australia over the Sun 
Alliance course and distance, is the right age and has serious scope for 
improvement. The trainer is not in the best of form but has a good 
record at the festival with his staying chasers and 33/1 looks value.

Ones on my 'watch' list are -:

Money Trix - 2nd in the Sefton Novice Hurdle and recent impressive chase 
winner at Newcastle. Will need to show a bit more though but has a great 
deal of potential and is lightly raced. Entered at Catterick on Friday 
and in a Beginners Chase on Sunday, it will be interesting to see 
whether he 'bounces' or not.

Air Force One - Decent 2nd to Wichita Lineman in hurdles race last term 
before a chase debut of promise this season when outspeeded by Hobbs 
Hill and Silverburn on his debut. Much better next time when trotting up 
at Folkestone stepped up in trip, jumps well and reportedly running in 
the next week or so but also trainer has mentioned the Reynoldstown as a 
target which would be a worry.

Dear Villez - possible Nicholls dark-horse who has hoofed up in a couple 
of fair novice chases last 2 runs although perhaps more likely to go for 
the Jewson and entered to run at Haydock on Saturday.

Trigger The Light - Alan King 7yo, 6th in the Aintree Hurdle won by 
Albertas Run but won well on his chase debut at Kempton in November.

No Refuge - Supreme Novice Hurdle winner 2 years ago, highly tried over 
hurdles last year but found wanting. Workmanlike win on his chase debut 
at Catterick on New Years Day, may be better to come. Entered at 
Huntingdon next Wednesday but still holds an entry in the World Hurdle.

Imperial Commander - A couple of wide-margin, impressive front-running 
efforts over 2 1/2 miles at Cheltenham but poor effort last time out 
stepped up in trip.

There are quite a few in the market at the moment that have preferred 
alternative engagements at Cheltenham and some of them won't even be 
lining up at all at the festival if the trainer/connections are to be 
believed. Reading through the trainers comments we can almost rule out 
the following key runners -:

Tidal Bay - trainer has stated a preference for the Arkle (a shame 
because I prefer him for this)
Glencove Marina - connections have stated the Arkle as the preferred choice.
Skys The Limit - reported to be heading for Fairyhouse.
Thyne Again - trainer has ruled out a trip to Cheltenham.
Lead On - trainer prefers the Jewson at this stage.
Hobbs Hill - trainer prefers the Ryannair Chase.
Silverburn - dropping back in trip after failing to stay last time.