The 3.20 at FAKENHAM is a fascinating class 3 Hcap chase over 3 mile
with many  possible winners. Of the nine runners there are none apart
from Follow Your Heart which can be totally excluded with any degree
of confidence.


BRONSON F´SURE is the most likely leader and after it's last two runs
I'm sure the opposition will fancy their chances of picking him up in
the home straight. But this is three miles and a front runners track
and he could surprise them. There is also a good chance that he'll
trade much lower than his current price of 5.3 In Running especially
as he's likely to rally when challenged like he did in the last of his
wins. Pasagai is of concern but will need to improve over the step up
in trip to win which is not certain. The one to watch in the market
though is ART VIRGINIA who if supported could be the fly in the
ointment. 


 I'll go through the field in racecard order:

The Dark Lord 
- An 11 year old who has only ever raced in Class 3 or higher races.
Mainly races on good or faster but did finish 2nd on a soft surface at
Market Rasen to the course specialist Victory Gunner. Looks best on a
faster surface but this galloper cannot be ruled out. Has traded in
the 5 - 8 range pre market in it's recent Class 3 chases

Yann´s
- As the old man of the party at 12 years of age this fellow has the
tea-shirt. He'd gone the best part of three years without a win prior
to his recent class 3 chase win in an 11k affair beating Contact
Dancer. The three principle turning for home finished out of the frame
which implies they may have gone too fast. There will be a pace today
but it may be uncontested which means it might not be the breakneck
this old fellow needs.

Pasagai
- As the baby of the party, this lightly raced 6yo is open to any
amount of improvement with just three chase start to his name. The
last of those was a win in a class 4 Chase. In it's first chase it ran
third behind Dictum with the consistent Sunley Shines in second with
the middle runs yielding a 12 length 3rd behind the 120 rated
Character Building. His rating of 112 is fair after his win and with
better to come he's feared although his place at the head of the
market is more due to promise than achivement and there must be a
question mark over his ability to last out the 3 mile trip since very
few of his sire's progeny have raced as far.

New Perk 
- A real course specialist with six course win to it's name split
50-50 between hurdles and chases. All his course chase wins have been
in class 4 chases and most of his course form is on good or faster
ground. It's last three course runs have been the most interesting.
It ran in this race last year when it chased home the 120 rated
Maletton. He followed that with a course win in a class 4 Hcap Hdle
and a class 4 chase at Taunton. That means he come into today's race
on a 8 pound higher rating than last year second - a tall order.

Bronson F´Sure 
- A dual point-to-point winner, this progressive chaser started off
his career under rules in Oct 06 and took five runs before troubling
the judge with a second over Southwell's 3m110y chase course on the
soft in a lowly 0-85 affair. He then reverted to 2m4f on the soft but
was well beaten and fell at the first on it's next start. It was at
Huntington last may that he made all in a class 4 chase on good going
and won unchallenged. He repeated the front running feat in his next
two starts finishing off with a win from a rating of 105. Connections
saw fit to revert to 2m4f for his return in a well contested 9k class
3 chase where he led at a good pace until the home straight where lack
of race fitness showed. Last time he ran his best race to date behind
Jack The Giant (151) and Fundamentalist (138) again over Leicester's
2m4f course. Beaten 28 lengths he led field into the home straight but
couldn't match the acceleration of the principles but plugged on.
Assuming that Fundamentalist only needed to run to a rating of 132
(rather than 138) would put this fellow on a rating of around 109.
What we can say is that he at least ran to today's rating of 106
especially sincehis jockey was unable to claim the 5 lb which he can
do today. What impressed me about his last two runs was the zest he
showed at his fences relishing his front running task. My main worry
today is the going since I think he's best on Good or faster going
where he can ping his fences and stretch the field. Over today's three
mile trip he's unlikely to come across anything with the acceleration
of his last opponents and with his front running style on this sharp
track he's a danger to all.


Moment Of Madness 
- Primarily a class 4 chaser, he's only once ventured into today's
class of chase and was well beaten. He's yet to win a handicap chase
and combined with his nine month absence from the track makes this
fellow a real outsider

Delightful Cliche 
- A recent convert to chasing, most of his best form has been achieved
on good or faster going. His three chase start have though showed
promise and his last two chase starts have resulted in two seconds.
They though were very small fields and against a more experienced
slightly larger field he may wel,l on today's GS surface, find it too
difficult a task.

Art Virginia 
- I find this runner the most difficult to assess.  When trained by N
Henderson just over a year ago in December 2006 he won a class 3
Novice Handicap chase rated 114 when wearing blinkers for the first
time. He followed that up with a second behind Idris in another Class
3 chase again wearing blinkers. He was then pulled up in a class 2
chase. Reverting to hurdles he disappointed somewhat and changed
stables in October last year. In his four starts for his current
trainer he's dropped from a rating of 127 down to today's rating of 97
- ridden by an amateur in each of it's four starts and without
blinkers. Today they put the blinkers back on and put the professional
jockey on top - do I detect a plot!!

Follow Your Heart
- Has managed to win a class 5 chase on it's penultimate start but
looks outclassed on it's overall form.

"Martin Kilgariff"  wrote in message 
news:aj9mo3ptfck3b0bhnv7noo19ffjqjqk4rs@4ax.com...
> The 3.20 at FAKENHAM is a fascinating class 3 Hcap chase over 3 mile
> with many  possible winners. Of the nine runners there are none apart
> from Follow Your Heart which can be totally excluded with any degree
> of confidence.

Excellent analysis as usual Martin, i noticed ART VIRGINIAS change in riders 
and the blinds and will ahve a small punt on that basis,but it is a very 
poor race imho.Mondays fare not oimproved with Plum being lost :-(
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"