Taking a chance with non runners and going LOL

but at Warwick

2.30
2 old stagers catch the eye in the value stakes,although it does take a leap 
of faith to put them up,both at long odds this a.m.
PHILSON RUN is at the veteran stakes nowadays ater a career dogged by 
fragile  pins,but this is his going and distance,comes on the scene very 
late when others are flagging.
Liked MR EDS late run last time and he is another that has 
underachieved,trip will siut thats for sure as will weight.imho

3.30

CRYPTIC has the figures and should make it 3 today.

apart from those,nothing else catches the eye..
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"

batezee wrote:
> Taking a chance with non runners and going LOL
> 
> but at Warwick
> 
> 2.30
> 2 old stagers catch the eye in the value stakes,although it does take a leap 
> of faith to put them up,both at long odds this a.m.
> PHILSON RUN is at the veteran stakes nowadays ater a career dogged by 
> fragile  pins,but this is his going and distance,comes on the scene very 
> late when others are flagging.
> Liked MR EDS late run last time and he is another that has 
> underachieved,trip will siut thats for sure as will weight.imho
> 
> 3.30
> 
> CRYPTIC has the figures and should make it 3 today.
> 
> apart from those,nothing else catches the eye..

Starting at Warwick in the 12:50, I have BROUSSE EN FEUX top-rated for 
David Pipe at around the 9/2 mark. Phardessa is 2nd on the ratings but 
the stable is out of sorts and bigger danger may come from OMNE ANTIQUE 
for Venetia Williams whose stable are in-form and who have a decent 
strike-rate with hurdlers here so I will probably back the favourite and 
cover stakes with the latter.

Next up is the 1:25 at Warwick and a decent little novice chase. Handy 
timing for the Gary Moore analysis. Has a fairly poor record at Warwick 
and this one reappears within 28 days, besides he is only 2nd on the 
ratings to the Alan King trained OLD BENNY and while I expect Verasi to 
be the main danger I think the favourite is worth a bet at 11/8.

The 2:00 is a trappy race. Nicky Henderson does well with chasers after 
a long abscence but it's taking a chance to back Tanikos here so it 
makes more sense to stick with a small bet on COACH LANE who should be 
around the 4/1 mark.

The 2:30 is the big chase of the day and I think Arnold Layne is worth 
taking on here. He doesn't figure on my top-6 on the ratings here 
largely down to the fact that, although he is improving, he still has a 
fair bit to find on the ratings with the best of these. TRUST FUND tops 
my ratings and at the 8/1 I think it's a great value bet for the hugely 
impressive Paul Nicholls who has won this race the last 2 years and been 
scooping up big races pretty much every weekend since the start of the 
season. Naunton Brook ran well in this last year and so far has been 
going well this season but appears in the grip of the handicapper. High 
Chimes is a danger but I will take a small e/w chance on KILBEGGAN BLADE 
as he was improving rapidly last season and appears to have rediscovered 
some form with a 20 length win last time. Is penalised but one of the 
more unexposed runners in the field for a stable in-form. 14/1 looks big.

Although I really like Souffleur and hate to abandon him, there is the 
chance he is better on a flatter track than this and NENUPHAR COLLONGES 
will relish the conditions and the track and is the value call to turn 
him over at 3/1. If Souffleur does win this then he will become a live 
contender at Cheltenham for whichever race he turns up in.

Finally at Warwick, the 3:30 race and interesting reappearance for BUENA 
VISTA over hurdles. Ran well when 3rd in the Supreme Novice a few years 
back but didn't quite make it over fences. Should be fit enough to do 
himself justice here and the 15/2 is a worthwhile price to take a chance 
on him scoring from main danger and favourite Cryptic who looks short 
enough.

Over at Kempton and the 2:45 race is not the best in the world. Burren 
Legend tops my ratings but I just get the feeling he may find one too 
good and I hope I don't regret discarding him. Micky Hammond is not in 
the best of form so I'll skip Lord Collingwood and plump for NO 
COMPLAINT as the main bet for in-form Tom George who is a decent price 
at 7/1. NO REGRETS is a danger and the 9/1 is worth a cover bet at least 
given Nicky Henderson's excellent record at the track and the fact he is 
running into form.

The Lanzarore and no space for Gary Moore's Panjo Bero in my ratings. I 
do like GABIER but Moore's record at Kempton tempers enthusiasm although 
I will probably have an each-way bet on him as the 9/1 looks generous 
but this can lie between Shatabdi and NYCTEOS with preference for the 
latter. Shatabdi is having his first run and has a 7lb claimer on board 
so the %call is to go with the Nicholls/Walsh combo at 7/2.

Finally, the 3:45, "the bells, the bells". MISTER QUASIMODO was probably 
fortunate a couple of outings ago when Master Minded unseated early in 
the race and was no match for Voy Por Ustedes and co. in a Grade2 last 
time but he should take all the beating here. Ever Present is not the 
force he was a few years ago, Salhood is out of sorts and Alphabetical 
doesn't always complete. Colin Tizzard is bang in form and this one 
should be closer to evens never mind 6/4 which looks big to me.

-- 
http://racebets.blogspot.com/

On Jan 12, 9:20 am, "batezee"  wrote:
>
>
> apart from those,nothing else catches the eye..
> --
> David
>
> "That Damn Butterfly"

My one strong bet of the day is PRINCE DE BERSY (1.45 Kempton), whose
summer malaise had far more to do with greenness than an inability to
get soft ground IMHO.  Gradually finding his feet and rhythm now as a
jumper, he still has some improvement in him.  The current exchange
price offers some decent value for me, but events may prove me wrong,
and not for the first time. ;)

Anyway, happy investing chaps.

The Weary Wizard wrote:
> On Jan 12, 9:20 am, "batezee"  wrote:
>>
>> apart from those,nothing else catches the eye..
>> --
>> David
>>
>> "That Damn Butterfly"
> 
> My one strong bet of the day is PRINCE DE BERSY (1.45 Kempton), whose
> summer malaise had far more to do with greenness than an inability to
> get soft ground IMHO.  Gradually finding his feet and rhythm now as a
> jumper, he still has some improvement in him.  The current exchange
> price offers some decent value for me, but events may prove me wrong,
> and not for the first time. ;)
> 
> Anyway, happy investing chaps.
> 

Although I really, really like him as a trainer (and I like Panjo Bere 
and Gabier) I have to avoid those two in the Lanzarote at Kempton - 
amazingly Gary Moore has just 3 winners from 127 runners at Kempton in 
the last 8 years - couldn't believe it when I checked that.