I hate wireless keybpoards you are just never sure..

a few to ponder

Newbury

2.05Can INGLIS DREVER complete the hattrick of wins here? can one on the way 
down spring one last hoorah! or maybe one already there has this in their 
sights? I dont know but? how about one mercilously (sp?) beaten by most of 
these at Cheltenham last year but may just have put it together this season 
and be primed to take his revenge,that one being KASBAH BLISS of M. 
DOUMENs..has had a couple of wins already so is fit and is now 5 years old 
and more mature.

2.45 Hennessy

1st time out and topweight,will need the run as well so cannot win,well 
thats the press point of view lol it would be a big mistake to write off 
DENMAN trust me and the way the betting is going will be a bet to nothing ew 
soon ? I like the look of NEW ALCO who maybe another FERDY MURPHY and GRAEME 
LEE touch,needs to step up but has been backed as has SNOWY MORNING who has 
a tremendous pull in the wieghts with DENMAN ??

3.45 For his 1st h`cap he appears to havr got in very lightly has SIGNS OF 
LOVE winner at NEWBURY  last season by quite a way.Long odds but backed.

Fairyhouse

3.05 ONe I had a touch with last season DEUTSCHLAND did not quite go on, but 
,when fresh like today musthave a bit of a squeak here imho

that`ll do me plus an EDUARDO hattrick later today of course :-)))))
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"

batezee wrote:
> I hate wireless keybpoards you are just never sure..
> 
> a few to ponder
> 
> Newbury
> 
> 2.05Can INGLIS DREVER complete the hattrick of wins here? can one on the way 
> down spring one last hoorah! or maybe one already there has this in their 
> sights? I dont know but? how about one mercilously (sp?) beaten by most of 
> these at Cheltenham last year but may just have put it together this season 
> and be primed to take his revenge,that one being KASBAH BLISS of M. 
> DOUMENs..has had a couple of wins already so is fit and is now 5 years old 
> and more mature.
> 
> 2.45 Hennessy
> 
> 1st time out and topweight,will need the run as well so cannot win,well 
> thats the press point of view lol it would be a big mistake to write off 
> DENMAN trust me and the way the betting is going will be a bet to nothing ew 
> soon ? I like the look of NEW ALCO who maybe another FERDY MURPHY and GRAEME 
> LEE touch,needs to step up but has been backed as has SNOWY MORNING who has 
> a tremendous pull in the wieghts with DENMAN ??
> 
> 3.45 For his 1st h`cap he appears to havr got in very lightly has SIGNS OF 
> LOVE winner at NEWBURY  last season by quite a way.Long odds but backed.
> 
> Fairyhouse
> 
> 3.05 ONe I had a touch with last season DEUTSCHLAND did not quite go on, but 
> ,when fresh like today musthave a bit of a squeak here imho
> 
> that`ll do me plus an EDUARDO hattrick later today of course :-)))))

Good stuff mate and nice couple of winner there - won't have time to 
post too much later but have picked out a few stats for a couple of 
races at Newbury. I think Denman is a bet today, different gravy, my 
ratings back that up and so do the stats from the RFO.

Favs 8 from 15 - Denman
2nd favs 4 wins - Snowy Morning/Abragante
80% of winners from 1st 2 in betting
Horses 8/1 or bigger 1 win from 59 runners - Denman, Abragante, Snowy 
Morning, New Alco

1st or 2nd last time 10/15 winners - Denman, Abragante, New Alco, Sir 
Rembrandt, Dream Alliance

14 of 15 had raced in at least one grade1 in their career - Denman, Dom 
D'Orgeval, Knowhere, Patsy Hall, Sir Rembrandt, Snowy Morning, Strong Flow

13 of 15 winners had won at least once in their last 3 runs - negative 
for Patsy Hall, Juveigneur, Point Barrow, D'Argent, Strong Flow, Madison 
Du Berlais

Horses that have finished 3rd or worse on last 2 runs are 2/40 - 
negative for Patsy Hall, Dom D'Orgeval, Juveigneur, Point Barrow, 
D'Argent, Strong Flow, Madison Du Berlais

9yo's+ have just 1 win from 36 runners - negative for Knowhere, 
Juveigneur, Strong Flow, Sir REmbrandt, D'Argent, Point Barrow

So Denman looks the pick with the market having this right as Snowy 
Morning & Abragante next best.

================================================

The Gerry Fielden has some interesting stats too at 3:45 most of them 
again centred around the betting...

top 2 in betting provided 9 of 15 winners - Poquelin (plus one from 
Kanad, Pevensey, Peacock, European Dream).
However, 3 of last 7 have produced a double-priced winner.

Horses dropping back in distance from last run have provided 5 from 22 
wins. That is pretty much all of them apart from Kanad, fav Poquelin, 
SIgns of Love and Tagula Blue.

Horses that have been off the track for 7 weeks or more have produced 
2/3rds of the winners and are 10/45 for a healthy profit so that is a 
positive for Tagula Blue and I'm So Lucky.

Horses that finished 5th or worse have 6 from 41 for a profit so a 
slight positive for French Saulaie, Pevensey, Glinton, Mount Sandel, 
Ingratitude, Manhattan Boy, I'm So Lucky, Mon Michel

12 of 15 winners had raced in at least one Grade1 event in their career 
from only 48 qualifiers. That included I'm So Lucky, Poquelin and Mon 
Michel.

Horses that won LTO have only 4 from 35 qualifiers showing a loss so bad 
news for Tagula Blue, Kanad and Signs of Love.

Horses off the track for 2 weeks or less are 0 wins from 33 qualifiers 
so rules out French Saulaie, Pevensey, Ingratitude, Manhattan Boy, 
European Dream and Mon Michel.

For me there are a couple of standouts, one is the favourite Poquelin 
who is another fav that tops my ratings but the real interesting one is 
I'm So Lucky at huge odds that fits a lot of the stats, Mon Michel is 
also of interest although fails on the 2 weeks or less criteria so I'm 
So Lucky will do for me at 40/1 each-way !!!

"batezee"  wrote in message 
news:5rcoocF13ns61U1@mid.individual.net...
>I hate wireless keybpoards you are just never sure..
>
> a few to ponder
>
> Newbury
>
> 2.05Can INGLIS DREVER complete the hattrick of wins here? can one on the 
> way down spring one last hoorah! or maybe one already there has this in 
> their sights? I dont know but? how about one mercilously (sp?) beaten by 
> most of these at Cheltenham last year but may just have put it together 
> this season and be primed to take his revenge,that one being KASBAH BLISS 
> of M. DOUMENs..has had a couple of wins already so is fit and is now 5 
> years old and more mature.
>
Had to have a saver on INGLIS DREVER when one was withdrawn therefore 
screwing my ew KB bet to nothing.What a champion this horse is,looed in a 
bit of trouble 1/2 way but proved what a stayer he is when cruising through 
to go on to an easy victory and third win in this.15/8 in fact was a 
terrific value bet given the form of these contenders.Who will sytop him in 
the World Hurdle aka Stayers Champion Hurdle?
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"

"batezee"  wrote in message 
news:5rcoocF13ns61U1@mid.individual.net...
>I hate wireless keybpoards you are just never sure..
>
> a few to ponder
>
> Newbury
> 2.45 Hennessy
>
> 1st time out and topweight,will need the run as well so cannot win,well 
> thats the press point of view lol it would be a big mistake to write off 
> DENMAN trust me and the way the betting is going will be a bet to nothing 
> ew soon ? I like the look of NEW ALCO who maybe another FERDY MURPHY and 
> GRAEME LEE touch,needs to step up but has been backed as has SNOWY MORNING 
> who has a tremendous pull in the wieghts with DENMAN ??

What a performance by DENMAN, Top weight of 11st 10lbs a rating of 
161,underfoot conditions,a field of known stayers for this 3m 21/2 f 
race,drifts to 5-1 I repeat 5-1 !! and a stablemate of Kauto Star,bloody 
hell how must Paul Nicholls feel at the moment *GRIN*  Terrific display of 
jumping the Newbury fences.all Thomas had to do was hold on and let him do 
it all himself !
More holiday money(4 weeks to go) and Rioja vouchers mmmm
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"

batezee wrote:
> "batezee"  wrote in message 
> news:5rcoocF13ns61U1@mid.individual.net...
>> I hate wireless keybpoards you are just never sure..
>>
>> a few to ponder
>>
>> Newbury
>> 2.45 Hennessy
>>
>> 1st time out and topweight,will need the run as well so cannot win,well 
>> thats the press point of view lol it would be a big mistake to write off 
>> DENMAN trust me and the way the betting is going will be a bet to nothing 
>> ew soon ? I like the look of NEW ALCO who maybe another FERDY MURPHY and 
>> GRAEME LEE touch,needs to step up but has been backed as has SNOWY MORNING 
>> who has a tremendous pull in the wieghts with DENMAN ??
> 
> What a performance by DENMAN, Top weight of 11st 10lbs a rating of 
> 161,underfoot conditions,a field of known stayers for this 3m 21/2 f 
> race,drifts to 5-1 I repeat 5-1 !! and a stablemate of Kauto Star,bloody 
> hell how must Paul Nicholls feel at the moment *GRIN*  Terrific display of 
> jumping the Newbury fences.all Thomas had to do was hold on and let him do 
> it all himself !
> More holiday money(4 weeks to go) and Rioja vouchers mmmm

Yeah that was immense. I couldn't believe the price as I was watching 
the race in-running early on and had a bit more on. Now all I need is 
that 40/1 shot to come in in the last ;-)

Dave McAUley wrote:
> ================================================
> 
> The Gerry Fielden has some interesting stats too at 3:45 most of them 
> again centred around the betting...
> 
> top 2 in betting provided 9 of 15 winners - Poquelin (plus one from 
> Kanad, Pevensey, Peacock, European Dream).
> However, 3 of last 7 have produced a double-priced winner.
> 
> Horses dropping back in distance from last run have provided 5 from 22 
> wins. That is pretty much all of them apart from Kanad, fav Poquelin, 
> SIgns of Love and Tagula Blue.
> 
> Horses that have been off the track for 7 weeks or more have produced 
> 2/3rds of the winners and are 10/45 for a healthy profit so that is a 
> positive for Tagula Blue and I'm So Lucky.
> 
> Horses that finished 5th or worse have 6 from 41 for a profit so a 
> slight positive for French Saulaie, Pevensey, Glinton, Mount Sandel, 
> Ingratitude, Manhattan Boy, I'm So Lucky, Mon Michel
> 
> 12 of 15 winners had raced in at least one Grade1 event in their career 
> from only 48 qualifiers. That included I'm So Lucky, Poquelin and Mon 
> Michel.
> 
> Horses that won LTO have only 4 from 35 qualifiers showing a loss so bad 
> news for Tagula Blue, Kanad and Signs of Love.
> 
> Horses off the track for 2 weeks or less are 0 wins from 33 qualifiers 
> so rules out French Saulaie, Pevensey, Ingratitude, Manhattan Boy, 
> European Dream and Mon Michel.
> 
> For me there are a couple of standouts, one is the favourite Poquelin 
> who is another fav that tops my ratings but the real interesting one is 
> I'm So Lucky at huge odds that fits a lot of the stats, Mon Michel is 
> also of interest although fails on the 2 weeks or less criteria so I'm 
> So Lucky will do for me at 40/1 each-way !!!
> 
> 

I think I will be striking off the < 14 days stat from the Gerry Fielden 
in future :-(