NEARDOWN BEAUTY in the Wol. 8-55  looks well in at the weights . 24lb.
better off with 2nd fav Counceller for a 5 length beating. By right he
should be 9-6 not 8-6 by my understanding.  Done well in a couple
Grade 1 List races, last in one, but only 3 lengths of the winner. Not
disavantaged by the draw. The trainers form seems to be the only
question mark. Toprated in the racing post and 2nd 3rd rated in other
papers gives me more confidence.And still it is the total outsider at
33/1. Why is this i wonder! Can anyone enlighten me to the negetive
factors


Paul

"winswell"  wrote in message 
news:2c075a91-3aac-4392-9fb9-d1c617c7cefb@e1g2000hsh.googlegroups.com...
> NEARDOWN BEAUTY in the Wol. 8-55  looks well in at the weights . 24lb.
> better off with 2nd fav Counceller for a 5 length beating. By right he
> should be 9-6 not 8-6 by my understanding.  Done well in a couple
> Grade 1 List races, last in one, but only 3 lengths of the winner. Not
> disavantaged by the draw. The trainers form seems to be the only
> question mark. Toprated in the racing post and 2nd 3rd rated in other
> papers gives me more confidence.And still it is the total outsider at
> 33/1. Why is this i wonder! Can anyone enlighten me to the negetive
> factors
>
>
> Paul

Hi Paul,

first up I detest these Donkey Derby AW tracks where,to be honest,I have 
found the form book means *** all! But that is mho and everyone has their 
own view.
As to your view about this one,well where to start> it is a very open h`cap 
where you could back anyone of them and still not be near the winner.I have 
looked at NEARDOWN BEAUTY and I just cannot see a case for having it 
anywhere near the winner.I take your point about running in a CL1 but have 
you read the race report? It did not perform well and the actual class of 
the runners were not that high imho.NB has had 34 runs and returned a winner 
just twice ffs and its recent form is why it has fallen down the 
weights,sorry but I cannot give it a hope.IMHO if I were to have a bet it 
would be from the 4 Cs.. COUNCELLOR,CARCINETTO,CARNIVORE and CORNUS.
Not much between them,COUNCELLOR is a bit of a character,CARCINETTO has a 
boy on him to offset the pen but also can be wayward which leaves just 
CARNIVORE who has been improving a bit lately and cORNUS a course winner who 
may like this 7f I`d probably dutch the last 2.
But I wish you luck and if you get the long odds so much the better,bet hes 
long odds on betfair win or place?

**** it !! now I`ll have to watch the race lol
-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"