I used to hate Monday's but now I actually look forward to 
winner-finding if not so much the racing. Starting off at 'leafy'...

Lin1200 Colorado Springs (Jaser)
Lin1230 Park Valley Price (King After)
Lin100 Dvinsky (Brandywell Boy)
Lin130 China Cherub (NAP) (One More Round)
Lin200 Unlicensed (Magical Fantasy)
Lin230 Titan Triumph (Fiefdom)
Lin300 Convallaria (Mister Always)
Lin330 Barry Island (Alfie Tupper)

Titan Triumph clocked some decent figures last time when scoring over 7f 
and although this is tougher he can go well from stall 1 in the 2:30 as 
he remains potentially ahead of the handicapped as he was forced to 
switch before scoring last time.
The nap though goes to China Cherub who is dropped markedly in class in 
the 1:30 claimer. Ran ok in much better class on turf and has not been 
beaten too far in much better races than this here. Has won at the 
course in the past and her figures are superior to anything else in the 
race. Did not get the run of the race last time after a short break but 
can go in here.
Hannon & Hughes can probably notch a quickfire double with Unlicensed in 
the 2:00 race.

===========================================

Ayr1240 Mrs O'Malley (Windygate)
Ayr110 Panthera Leo (Bewery Man)
Ayr140 Ballyvoge (NAP) (Rathowen)
Ayr210 Polyphon (Reckless Venture)
Ayr240 Silver By Nature (Ajay)
Ayr310 Native Coral (Chicapeakray)
Ayr340 Oscar Gogo (Le Platino)

Lots of these races will take some getting today with the underfoot 
conditions likely to place a real emphasis on stamina.
Ballyvoge gets the nap in the 1:40 race. Great figures last time, Nicky 
Richards has a good record here and travelled powerfully on his chase 
debut and sticking to his task well behind decent winner ICE TEA. Will 
strip fitter for that and is 2/2 in Irish points.
Polyphon was rated 119 last time over fences and appears in the 2:10 off 
81 so looks thrown in but we saw with Taranis over the weekend that does 
not necessarily mean they are a shoe-in and despite the booking of 
Graham Lee he could be worth opposing on his first run with 19 runners 
to take on. Reckless Venture could have him here as he looks like he 
will appreciate the cut and was well backed last time.
McCain Jnr is hitting form and his Mrs O'Malley can go well in the first 
race while Howard Johnson should also have a good day.

==============================================

Lud1250 Brenin Cwmtudu (Meersbrook)
Lud120 Theocritus (Easter Present)
Lud150 Soviet Sceptre (Airman)
Lud220 Gan Eagla (Marked Man)
Lud250 Tycoon Hall (Dasher Reilly)
Lud320 Needle Prick (Sawpit Sunset)
Lud350 Cresswell Ruby (Camden Four)

It's all about Evan Williams and Henrietta Knight at Ludlow. Both are in 
form and both have runners in with chances here, particularly Williams. 
Gan Eagla can go well at a track he clearly likes but for the NAP I am 
going with Brenin Cwmtudu whose bumper form looks solid, will be fit for 
this and will know what to do on his hudrles debut in what looks a 
relatively weak race.

Good Luck

"Dave McAuley"  wrote in message 
news:HcOdnZe5T8eQO9faRVnygAA@bt.com...
>I used to hate Monday's but now I actually look forward to winner-finding 
>if not so much the racing.

> Lud250 Tycoon Hall (Dasher Reilly)
>
> Good Luck

Dave you haven`t rated NIKOLA?  (the winner) or the danger STAR SHOT.I`ll 
admit NIKOLA is a bit short early on but will drift imho and I shall grab 
some of the 3-1 lol

My beautiful youngest daughter being called NICOLA has nothing to do with 
the view I have taken *GRIN* and if she is unsuccessful I will not phone the 
missus and tell her she owes me a few quid as I only put the bet on for her 
:-)))

David

"That Damn Butterfly"

batezee wrote:
> "Dave McAuley"  wrote in message 
> news:HcOdnZe5T8eQO9faRVnygAA@bt.com...
>> I used to hate Monday's but now I actually look forward to winner-finding 
>> if not so much the racing.
> 
>> Lud250 Tycoon Hall (Dasher Reilly)
>>
>> Good Luck
> 
> Dave you haven`t rated NIKOLA?  (the winner) or the danger STAR SHOT.I`ll 
> admit NIKOLA is a bit short early on but will drift imho and I shall grab 
> some of the 3-1 lol
> 
> My beautiful youngest daughter being called NICOLA has nothing to do with 
> the view I have taken *GRIN* and if she is unsuccessful I will not phone the 
> missus and tell her she owes me a few quid as I only put the bet on for her 
> :-)))
> 
> David
> 
> "That Damn Butterfly" 
> 
> 

Good luck with that. For what it's worth I have Star Shot 3rd on my 
ratings ahead of Nikola in 4th ;-)

On 26 Nov, 10:56, Dave McAuley 
wrote:
> I used to hate Monday's but now I actually look forward to
> winner-finding if not so much the racing. Starting off at 'leafy'...
>
> Lin1200 Colorado Springs (Jaser)
> Lin1230 Park Valley Price (King After)
> Lin100 Dvinsky (Brandywell Boy)
> Lin130 China Cherub (NAP) (One More Round)
> Lin200 Unlicensed (Magical Fantasy)
> Lin230 Titan Triumph (Fiefdom)
> Lin300 Convallaria (Mister Always)
> Lin330 Barry Island (Alfie Tupper)
>
> Titan Triumph clocked some decent figures last time when scoring over 7f
> and although this is tougher he can go well from stall 1 in the 2:30 as
> he remains potentially ahead of the handicapped as he was forced to
> switch before scoring last time.
> The nap though goes to China Cherub who is dropped markedly in class in
> the 1:30 claimer. Ran ok in much better class on turf and has not been
> beaten too far in much better races than this here. Has won at the
> course in the past and her figures are superior to anything else in the
> race. Did not get the run of the race last time after a short break but
> can go in here.
> Hannon & Hughes can probably notch a quickfire double with Unlicensed in
> the 2:00 race.
>
> ===========================================
>
> Ayr1240 Mrs O'Malley (Windygate)
> Ayr110 Panthera Leo (Bewery Man)
> Ayr140 Ballyvoge (NAP) (Rathowen)
> Ayr210 Polyphon (Reckless Venture)
> Ayr240 Silver By Nature (Ajay)
> Ayr310 Native Coral (Chicapeakray)
> Ayr340 Oscar Gogo (Le Platino)
>
> Lots of these races will take some getting today with the underfoot
> conditions likely to place a real emphasis on stamina.
> Ballyvoge gets the nap in the 1:40 race. Great figures last time, Nicky
> Richards has a good record here and travelled powerfully on his chase
> debut and sticking to his task well behind decent winner ICE TEA. Will
> strip fitter for that and is 2/2 in Irish points.
> Polyphon was rated 119 last time over fences and appears in the 2:10 off
> 81 so looks thrown in but we saw with Taranis over the weekend that does
> not necessarily mean they are a shoe-in and despite the booking of
> Graham Lee he could be worth opposing on his first run with 19 runners
> to take on. Reckless Venture could have him here as he looks like he
> will appreciate the cut and was well backed last time.
> McCain Jnr is hitting form and his Mrs O'Malley can go well in the first
> race while Howard Johnson should also have a good day.
>
> ==============================================
>
> Lud1250 Brenin Cwmtudu (Meersbrook)
> Lud120 Theocritus (Easter Present)
> Lud150 Soviet Sceptre (Airman)
> Lud220 Gan Eagla (Marked Man)
> Lud250 Tycoon Hall (Dasher Reilly)
> Lud320 Needle Prick (Sawpit Sunset)
> Lud350 Cresswell Ruby (Camden Four)
>
> It's all about Evan Williams and Henrietta Knight at Ludlow. Both are in
> form and both have runners in with chances here, particularly Williams.
> Gan Eagla can go well at a track he clearly likes but for the NAP I am
> going with Brenin Cwmtudu whose bumper form looks solid, will be fit for
> this and will know what to do on his hudrles debut in what looks a
> relatively weak race.
>
> Good Luck

On 26 Nov, 10:56, Dave McAuley 
wrote:
> I used to hate Monday's but now I actually look forward to
> winner-finding if not so much the racing. Starting off at 'leafy'...
>
> Lin1200 Colorado Springs (Jaser)

Great posts Dave !

I have noticed that a lot of your 2nd top-rated often win at decent
prices - any chance you can post up your full ratings for each race or
how you actually work out your staking ?

Ta

J

Justin Bohan wrote:
> On 26 Nov, 10:56, Dave McAuley 
> wrote:
>> I used to hate Monday's but now I actually look forward to
>> winner-finding if not so much the racing. Starting off at 'leafy'...
>>
>> Lin1200 Colorado Springs (Jaser)
> 
> Great posts Dave !
> 
> I have noticed that a lot of your 2nd top-rated often win at decent
> prices - any chance you can post up your full ratings for each race or
> how you actually work out your staking ?
> 
> Ta
> 
> J
> 

Thought I should respond to this, especially after 2nd-rated RATHOWEN
just beat my nap Ballyvoge at 16/1 !!

Yes, I would love to post all my ratings for every race but it would be
too time consuming because of all the formatting I would have to do from
excel. Just to clarify what I do -  I rate the horses in a race
based on a number of factors, all of which are available from the Racing
Post site, this then enables me to rank the horses in order of 
preference. I have been doing this for a while.

After reading the Class Figures book I also compile a 'class' rating
(DMF) for each horse based on the last 3 runs including class/track and
a few other things thrown in for good measure - a lot of which is based 
on the book although it had to be modified from the flat.

I end up with the following - using the Ayr 1:40 as an example...I also 
include trainer% strike-rates for the last fortnights, recent speed and 
rpr ratings from the RP etc. To keep it simple it's basically...

Horse		Rank	DMF
BALLYVOGE 	1	5.5
RATHOWEN 	2	29.7
WITCH WIND    	3	7.7
DALAWAN		4	22.5
WEE FORBEES5	5	47.2

So I have Ballyvoge rated top but his DMF 'class' figure was not as
strong as Rathowen's, so in such situations I usually back the top-rated
and either place a cover or dutch with the 2nd-top. Sometimes I will
also throw in the 3rd top-rated or include a 3rd or 4th rated if the
trainer has a decent strike-rate in the last 14 days and the ones above
it in the ratings have low 'class' ratings. I will sometimes back the 
top-rated and then dutch two from the next 2 or 3 in the ratings to at 
least recoup stakes should the top-rated not win.

Also Wee Forbees had the best 'class' rating but was only 5th in my 
rankings so often I will take  the option to lay it, although not as 
large as I would if it had a lower form figure. I also never lay at 
bigger than 2.9 and often put in-running lays in at this price but will 
also back it if it comes down and then extends to 3 just to potentially 
get the lay stake back but this is another slightly more complicated 
process that I employ using the excellent Bettrader Pro software.

Another tactic I often employ using the software is to place a small bet
up at twice the odds at the 'off'. In this case I had a bet matched on
Ballyvoge at 7's and on Rathowen at 46 ! You would be surprised at how
often this can boost profits although I'm not 100% sure if this
outweights the ones that get matched at big odds and go on to lose (or 
indeed have already fallen..lol)  although I did get matched at the high 
20's on L'Antartique a few weeks ago in the Paddy Power and have also 
been matched at odds of up to 120 on runners seemingly out of it but 
then win after one in front falls etc but I only ever do this for a few 
quid at most.

It's not an exact science, I don't think there is any ratings method
that you can use to give the first-3 home rated in 1,2,3 but I'm happy 
that the method I use can narrow it down to the top-2 or 3 and also 
pinpoint value amongst those few runners.

I have also just been using WBX to test a separate method which is to 
back whichever one of the top-2 in the ratings have the highest DMF 
figure and it has shown very solid results so far. I have been using it 
to back in every race since the 15th November, so that is 354 bets. 
Matched turnover is £649 and gross p&l is £198.91 and I am only talking 
about £1-£5 bets max so that is not too bad for 2 weeks work.

The biggest loss on a day has been £21.06 and the biggest profit was on 
Saturday of £70.02. That may ultimately be the best method to follow - I 
am going to use the gg.com Tipzone site to test out this method on there 
as well as taking care of analyzing all your stats for you etc.

I will try to mark the top-dmf rated with an asterisk on here but as 
always at this time of year, you run out of time very quickly in the 
mornings and will obviously not be possible when I have to return to the 
9-5 grind :-(

Anyway, hope that explains things a bit.

"Dave McAuley"  wrote in message 
news:6tqdncOetp0dfNfanZ2dnUVZ8tWvnZ2d@bt.com...
> Justin Bohan wrote:
>> On 26 Nov, 10:56, Dave McAuley 
>> wrote:
>>> I used to hate Monday's but now I actually look forward to
>>> winner-finding if not so much the racing. Starting off at 'leafy'...
>
> Anyway, hope that explains things a bit.



I`m still confused Dave,but then thats no surprise is it LOL
the only ratings system I use! is with RIOJA lol as in:

1) VFM

2) how quickly can it be delivered in an emergency

3) with how much ease does the cork remove

4) how much 2 bottles(minmum) helpwith form reading in the middle of the 
night lol

there are others and next time I have a RIOJA night I will recall and 
post.......4 a.m. tomorrow morning o.k.?


-- 
David

"That Damn Butterfly"