Saturday Racing (excl Cheltenham)
Well, it's hard to tear myself away from the mouthwatering Cheltenham
card but the reality is that it's probably going to be ultra-competitive
and my profits may come from elsewhere today as they did yesterday at
Lingfield.
Kick off at Wetherby first -:
Wet1210 SUNQUEST is clear on my ratings and although likely to be short
should take all the beating in this seller as the opposition looks very
weak as you would expect.
Wet1240 Another favourite tops the ratings here and can't find a reason
to oppose him. DREAMMAKER put up probably his best performance last time
off a similar mark and his superior jumping should be enough to score
agains this poor lot. Pat Haslam has a 23% strike-rate at Wetherby.
Wet110 JJ Quinn has a decent strike-rate recently with 3 wins from his
last 6 runners and at the track (31%) so his Brook No Argument will have
a big chance but I'm plumping for Sue Smith's AURORAS ENCORE who will be
the better value, will strip fitter than the favourite and ran well
enough on his hurdling debut to suggest he can take a race of this nature.
Wet145 Sue Smith has a good chance of a double here with Super Road
Train and a conditional is on board to alleviate the 7lb penalty and so
I'm not convinced it is an odds-on shot. CHARMING FELLOW is worth taking
a chance with on fitness as finished the season well and has won round
here before.
Wet220 Valentines Lady is going to be short but I think JUST SMOKIE may
have her measure. A little more experience than the fav in novice
hurdles and ran a fair 3rd after an abscence last time before being dq'ed.
Wet250 Notanotherdonkey ran really well last time but preference here is
for BAFANA BOY and the 5/2 is better than I was expecting. Jumps well,
stable in form and although 9lb higher than last time may still have
more improvement to come.
Wet325 Oso Magic has run a couple of decent races in defeat lately but
this looks my best value bet in the card in the shape of MAGIC SKY. Has
clocked a couple of decent speed figures on last 2 runs and would have
finished a bit closer in those races but for being hampered at key
stages. 8/1 is massive here IMO as this represents a fairly hefty drop
in class. Elaala can prove the biggest threat.
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Over to Uttoxeter where a lot of the races look like coin-flips to me,
in which case I will more often than not plump for the value.
Utt1230 ROOD REPORT has already shown he can jump hurdles and his form
looks pretty good. He is therefore preferred to Or Bleu who is likely to
be the main danger if he takes to the hurdles. Quarrymount also a threat.
Utt105 Mr President was a decent enough hurdler and Brendan Powell is on
fire lately but the price makes little appeal with the abscence and the
fact he may prefer softer ground. 2nd on my ratings and overpriced I
think is CAGED TIGER who is related to the decent performer Young
Snugfit so should take to fences and have no problem with the ground.
It's a bit of a gamble but the price of 14/1+ makes up for it.
Utt135 Poor seller, RUDE HEALTH just preferred at the prices to the
favourite Fout County Lad.
Utt210 Rapid Increase scored well on his debut last time in some style
and the form has been boosted since. He is defo the one to beat but I am
going with WHITEOAK for the in-form McCain Jnr. Will have learnt a lot
from his last run where he jumped right on a few occasions. Looks the
value call.
Utt245 Two at big prices I like here. Consistent chaser BARREN LANDS is
13lb lower here than when last seen scoring over fences so is
potentially well in, if fit enough, 25/1 huge if he is. The other I like
is RISK RUNNER who has to concede weight but there is a reason for that.
Got off the mark in December in first-time blinkers and mixing it in
much better company since, stable bang in-form and 16/1 wayyy too big.
Favourite respected but too short in a race with so many runners.
Utt320 STORM OF APPLAUSE should take the beating here. One mistake
probably cost him dear last time but well bred for fences so is worth
forgiving that debut mistake. Something Wells the danger.
Utt350 Oh goodeee a Bumper to finish with, now whre is my pin ;-)
Victorbano, Phoudamour and NORTHERN LAD are my 3 with preference for the
latter although not a race to bet in really unless you know something or
if the market speaks in favour of one of these.
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On to Batezee's favourite racing today, the donkey derbies ;-)
Lin1200 Tricky maiden filly race. Arabian Art 'may' improve for the
surface and this could be easier than the Newmarket maiden she contested
but preference is for John Dunlop's ACQUIFER who was just touched off
last time but no surprise to see a newcomer run her close.
Lin1225 Masterofthecourt looks tricky to get right but looks the main
danger to WATERLINE TWENTY who has been consistent lately beating
Pendulum Star and running a close length 3rd to subsequent winner Satin
Braid. That should be good enough to take this.
Lin1250 This looks the better division of the maiden fillies race with
some top stables represented. BOOKISH put up a promising first effort on
the all-weather before flopping on two subsequent starts on soft ground.
I think will appreciate the return to this surface and looks overpriced.
Edie Superstar the obvious danger after her run last time.
Lin120 Even less to go on here. Will probably just go for the experience
and plump for SEGAL for Noseda whose runners go well here with likely
danger probably Moothir.
Lin155 Willie Haggas is in top form at the moment and FYODOR looks the
best bet on the card. Decent AW sprinter and ran a fair race on turf
last time. Ceremonial Jade the obvious danger.
Lin230 Another race dominated by the top-2 in the market. Both McCabe
and Haggas are in form but I prefer the speed figures of VERY WISE over
Capricorn Run.
Lin300 Watchful is of interest for Cumani but RISQUE HEIGHTS has been in
decent form of late and has the better overall figures.
Lin335 SPECIAL PLACE has already proven himself over this course and
distance and ran well after a break last time. Will take the beating but
Tango Step looks a big price and is worth noting in the betting for any
moves.
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Just top-2 at Wolves as no time...
Wol700 Forstye Saga (Wing Play)
Wol730 Pearl (Gamesters Lady)
Wol755 Clovis (Tyrells Wood)
Wol825 Silver Tide (Red Blossom)
Wol855 Postmaster (Royal Embrace)
Wol920 Kings College Boy (Almaty Express)
Good luck all
date: Sat, 17 Nov 2007 11:34:23 +0000
author: Dave McAuley
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