Weekend Footie
This newsgroup hasn't been a barrel of laughs recently, so I thought I'd
try to provoke some by mining some extra forecasts from my unimpressive
draws system.
The aim is to find a bookie killer, a result as unlikely as Tony Blair
starting to listen to his electorate. I've noticed in passing a few
unlikely results that my system would have 'predicted', but that's prone
to all sorts of subjective biases. I've put in some spurious numbers and
run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in descending
rating order. To do the job properly, I should have factored in bookies
odds, but I cheated and relied on recent form.
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 15 Mar 2007 16:59:29 +0000
author: nigel
|
Re: Weekend Footie
nigel wrote:
> This newsgroup hasn't been a barrel of laughs recently, so I thought I'd
> try to provoke some by mining some extra forecasts from my unimpressive
> draws system.
>
> The aim is to find a bookie killer, a result as unlikely as Tony Blair
> starting to listen to his electorate. I've noticed in passing a few
> unlikely results that my system would have 'predicted', but that's prone
> to all sorts of subjective biases. I've put in some spurious numbers and
> run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in descending
> rating order. To do the job properly, I should have factored in bookies
> odds, but I cheated and relied on recent form.
>
> Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33
> Leicester v QPR - away @4.33
> Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00
> Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33
> Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60
> Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75
>
> Evil Nigel
>
I think the last person in here forgot to turn the lights out!
The forecasts did okay so I'll continue the trial. I nicked the odds
from a 'best' site so considering multiple bets is not really
appropriate - below is a blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each
forecast.
stake return profit
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 6.00 10.41 4.41
I've run the midweek fixtures and no matches are flagged.
Evil Nigel
date: Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:11:29 +0000
author: nigel
|
Weekend Footie
>> I've run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in
>> descending rating order. Unfortunately no juicy aways.
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98
> I nick the odds
> from a 'best' site so considering multiple bets is not really
> appropriate - below is a blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each
> forecast so far.
> stake return profit
> Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
> Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
> Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
>
> Totals 6.00 10.41 4.41
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 22 Mar 2007 14:20:18 +0000
author: nigel
|
Re: Weekend Footie
Updated blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each forecast so far.
stake return profit
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98 1.00 1.98 0.98
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 9.00 12.39 3.39
The 90th minute penalty by Oldham didn't help :(
No midweek matches qualify.
Evil Nigel
date: Mon, 26 Mar 2007 11:34:41 +0100
author: nigel
|
Weekend Footie
This newsgroup hasn't been a barrel of laughs recently, so I thought I'd
try to provoke some by mining some extra forecasts from my unimpressive
draws system.
The aim is to find a bookie killer, a result as unlikely as Tony Blair
starting to listen to his electorate. I've noticed in passing a few
unlikely results that my system would have 'predicted', but that's prone
to all sorts of subjective biases. I've put in some spurious numbers and
run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in descending
rating order. To do the job properly, I should have factored in bookies
odds, but I cheated and relied on recent form.
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 15 Mar 2007 16:59:29 +0000
author: nigel
|
Re: Weekend Footie
nigel wrote:
> This newsgroup hasn't been a barrel of laughs recently, so I thought I'd
> try to provoke some by mining some extra forecasts from my unimpressive
> draws system.
>
> The aim is to find a bookie killer, a result as unlikely as Tony Blair
> starting to listen to his electorate. I've noticed in passing a few
> unlikely results that my system would have 'predicted', but that's prone
> to all sorts of subjective biases. I've put in some spurious numbers and
> run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in descending
> rating order. To do the job properly, I should have factored in bookies
> odds, but I cheated and relied on recent form.
>
> Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33
> Leicester v QPR - away @4.33
> Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00
> Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33
> Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60
> Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75
>
> Evil Nigel
>
I think the last person in here forgot to turn the lights out!
The forecasts did okay so I'll continue the trial. I nicked the odds
from a 'best' site so considering multiple bets is not really
appropriate - below is a blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each
forecast.
stake return profit
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 6.00 10.41 4.41
I've run the midweek fixtures and no matches are flagged.
Evil Nigel
date: Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:11:29 +0000
author: nigel
|
Weekend Footie
>> I've run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in
>> descending rating order. Unfortunately no juicy aways.
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98
> I nick the odds
> from a 'best' site so considering multiple bets is not really
> appropriate - below is a blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each
> forecast so far.
> stake return profit
> Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
> Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
> Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
>
> Totals 6.00 10.41 4.41
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 22 Mar 2007 14:20:18 +0000
author: nigel
|
Re: Weekend Footie
Updated blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each forecast so far.
stake return profit
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98 1.00 1.98 0.98
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 9.00 12.39 3.39
The 90th minute penalty by Oldham didn't help :(
No midweek matches qualify.
Evil Nigel
date: Mon, 26 Mar 2007 11:34:41 +0100
author: nigel
|
Weekend Footie
This newsgroup hasn't been a barrel of laughs recently, so I thought I'd
try to provoke some by mining some extra forecasts from my unimpressive
draws system.
The aim is to find a bookie killer, a result as unlikely as Tony Blair
starting to listen to his electorate. I've noticed in passing a few
unlikely results that my system would have 'predicted', but that's prone
to all sorts of subjective biases. I've put in some spurious numbers and
run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in descending
rating order. To do the job properly, I should have factored in bookies
odds, but I cheated and relied on recent form.
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 15 Mar 2007 16:59:29 +0000
author: nigel
|
Re: Weekend Footie
nigel wrote:
> This newsgroup hasn't been a barrel of laughs recently, so I thought I'd
> try to provoke some by mining some extra forecasts from my unimpressive
> draws system.
>
> The aim is to find a bookie killer, a result as unlikely as Tony Blair
> starting to listen to his electorate. I've noticed in passing a few
> unlikely results that my system would have 'predicted', but that's prone
> to all sorts of subjective biases. I've put in some spurious numbers and
> run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in descending
> rating order. To do the job properly, I should have factored in bookies
> odds, but I cheated and relied on recent form.
>
> Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33
> Leicester v QPR - away @4.33
> Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00
> Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33
> Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60
> Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75
>
> Evil Nigel
>
I think the last person in here forgot to turn the lights out!
The forecasts did okay so I'll continue the trial. I nicked the odds
from a 'best' site so considering multiple bets is not really
appropriate - below is a blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each
forecast.
stake return profit
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 6.00 10.41 4.41
I've run the midweek fixtures and no matches are flagged.
Evil Nigel
date: Mon, 19 Mar 2007 14:11:29 +0000
author: nigel
|
Weekend Footie
>> I've run the weekend fixtures and below are the forecasts, in
>> descending rating order. Unfortunately no juicy aways.
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98
> I nick the odds
> from a 'best' site so considering multiple bets is not really
> appropriate - below is a blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each
> forecast so far.
> stake return profit
> Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
> Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
> Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
> Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
>
> Totals 6.00 10.41 4.41
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 22 Mar 2007 14:20:18 +0000
author: nigel
|
Re: Weekend Footie
Updated blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each forecast so far.
stake return profit
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98 1.00 1.98 0.98
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 9.00 12.39 3.39
The 90th minute penalty by Oldham didn't help :(
No midweek matches qualify.
Evil Nigel
date: Mon, 26 Mar 2007 11:34:41 +0100
author: nigel
|
Weekend Footie
Another deeply unimpressive pair of matches:
Ipswich v Plymouth - home @ 2.26
Wrexham v Mansfield - home @ 2.37
Updated blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each forecast so far.
stake return profit
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98 1.00 1.98 0.98
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 9.00 12.39 3.39
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:36:46 +0100
author: nigel
|
Weekend Footie
Another deeply unimpressive pair of matches:
Ipswich v Plymouth - home @ 2.26
Wrexham v Mansfield - home @ 2.37
Updated blow-by-blow account of betting £1 on each forecast so far.
stake return profit
Bradford v Blackpool - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Brentford v Oldham - home @3.35 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Swansea v Northampton - home @1.98 1.00 1.98 0.98
Middlesbrough v Man City - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Leicester v QPR - away @4.33 1.00 4.33 3.33
Crewe v Bristol City - home @3.00 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Darlington v Hereford - away @4.33 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Bristol Rovers v Notts Co - away @3.60 1.00 0.00 -1.00
Cowdenbeath v Forfar - home @1.75 1.00 1.75 0.75
Totals 9.00 12.39 3.39
Evil Nigel
date: Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:36:46 +0100
author: nigel
|
