Fantasy Baseball Breakdown

By Mike Brody

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer



The Six-Month Grind



We're three weeks into the 2006 baseball season, and if your fantasy team
looks anything like mine, you're ready to unload half of your roster.  I
know it's hard, but be patient.  The worse thing you could do right now is
panic and make a bad trade or drop a good player.



Baseball, more than any other sport, is driven by statistics.  It's a long
season with a lot of ups and downs for most players.  In the end, the
numbers usually even out.  If you stick with your guys long enough, they
should come around and start producing like you expected them to.



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Off to a Hot Start



While it's very difficult to watch your team stumble out of the gate (as I'm
writing this, my offense is a collective 0-15 today and I'm about ready to
have a fire sale), there was a reason why you drafted these guys.  If you
were lucky enough - or smart enough, depending on how you look at it - to
draft Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes or Nick Swisher, you're probably at the top
of your league, right now.  But are these guys really going to lead the
league in home runs?



Manny Ramirez hit his first two home runs of the season, last weekend.  Mark
Teixeira and Richie Sexson have three and two homers, respectively, through
the first three weeks.  These guys are all perennial 40-home-run-hitters,
and barring injury, you can be sure that they will get their numbers by the
season's end.



Waiting for the Right Time



Everyone's heard the cliché "buy low, sell high."  It's sound advice.
Knowing the right time to deal that guy who's off to a hot start is the key
to making this happen.  There's no way Shelton, Gomes and Swisher are going
to keep up the pace they've set so far - Shelton's already started to slow
down - but how can you not ride their hot streaks a little longer?  Just don
't wait too long if you're planning on dealing them.



Knowing players' trends is another key in making the right deal at the right
time.  Some players are traditionally slow starters, like Ramirez and Jim
Edmonds, and trading for them at the end of their slow start could mean big
stats for you the rest of the way.  A lot of hitters heat up when the
weather does too, so they could be busting out of these slumps any day now.



On the Rise



Targeting players who are showing signs of breaking out is another key to
making the right roster adjustments.  Here are a few players who might be
available and could definitely help some teams:



Josh Barfield - The rookie second baseman has excelled since being moved to
the No. 2 spot in the Padres lineup.  He's got his average over .300 and has
2 HRs and 6 steals.  Grab him if he's still available.



Ty Wigginton - Playing for his third team in four years, the journeyman
third baseman seems to have found a home in Tampa Bay.  He's taken advantage
of Aubrey Huff's knee injury and already has 8 home runs and 20 RBI.
Playing in hitter-friendly Tropicana Field should help, too.  Ride him while
he's hot.



Brad Hawpe - The Colorado Rockies outfielder has established himself as the
everyday right fielder and is firmly entrenched in the heart of the Rockies
lineup.  He's batting over .340 and already has slugged 5 HRs.  The 2000
College World Series MVP is well on his way to a .300-30-100 season.  You
never can go wrong having a Rockie in your lineup.



The Pitching Hole



While there is plenty of time to make up ground on offense, falling behind
in the pitching categories - especially ERA and WHIP - can be a killer.
Avoiding those complete disasters in the early season is a key to remaining
competitive on the mound.



With pitchers, it's all about the matchups.  Don't be afraid to bench one of
your better pitchers for a riskier play if the matchup is right.  Throwing a
marginal starter against Kansas City or Pittsburgh is always better than
having just about any starter face the Yankees or pitch at Colorado.



Whether you find yourself at the top of your league or at the bottom of the
pack after these first three weeks, don't stop looking to make your team
better.  Stocking your bench with productive players who could be used as
trade bait is always a good idea.  The inevitable injuries will come, and
having players to step in during those times will help you avoid having to
make a desperate deal.



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Michael Brody



Writer/Editor

WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer



Mike has been writing and reporting on sports for 14 years.



He started his career as a sports writer and radio broadcaster at Cal State
Northridge.  Mike has written for the Los Angeles Daily News and has been a
writer/editor for KNBC in Los Angeles, where he worked on the nightly
sportscast with Fred Roggin.  He also wrote and edited material for NBC
network specials and has more than 10 years of online journalism experience.



Although he lives in Southern California, Mike was born and raised in the
Boston area and is a diehard fan of all the Boston professional teams.





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