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date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 13:30:55 +0000,
group: uk.politics.electoral
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Welsh Boundary Changes
The Fifth Periodical Report of the Parliamentary Boundary Commission for
Wales was published earlier this month (HC 743-I and HC 743-II). I did
the following analysis of where the old constituencies went. Note that
the 'Index of Change' is a calculation to summaries the identity between
old and new constituencies: it is calculated as the sum of the
electors added and the electors removed from the base constituency as a
percentage of the base constituency's electorate.
To make it easier to understand, in the tables showing where the old
and new constituency electorates went or came from, the old
constituencies are in lower case and the new ones in all caps.
WELSH REDISTRIBUTION
Clwyd
Alyn and Deeside CC 60,331
ALYN and DEESIDE CC 60,331 100%
Clwyd South CC 53,860
CLWYD SOUTH CC 51,201 95.1
MONTGOMERYSHIRE CC 1,358 2.5
CLWYD WEST CC 1,301 2.4
Clwyd West CC 54,606
CLWYD WEST CC 54,080 99.0
VALE of CLWYD CC 526 1.0
Delyn CC 54,277
DELYN CC 54,277 100%
Vale of Clwyd CC 49,111
VALE of CLWYD CC 49,111 100%
Wrexham CC 50,890
WREXHAM CC 50,890 100%
Dyfed
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr CC 54,086
CARMARTHEN EAST and DINEFWR CC 52,741 97.5
CARMARTHEN WEST and SOUTH
PEMBROKESHIRE CC 1,345 2.5
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire CC 56,391
CARMARTHEN WEST and SOUTH
PEMBROKESHIRE CC 55,798 98.9
PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE CC 593 1.1
Ceredigion CC 52,859
CEREDIGION CC 52,514 99.3
PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE CC 345 0.7
Llanelli CC 57,409
LLANELLI CC 57,409 100%
Preseli Pembrokeshire CC 55,063
PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE CC 55,063 100%
Mid Glamorgan
Bridgend CC 62,692
BRIDGEND CC 57,046 91.0
OGMORE CC 2,826 4.5
VALE of GLAMORGAN CC 2,820 4.5
Caerphilly CC 68,678
CAERPHILLY CC 64,120 93.4
ISLWYN CC 4,558 6.6
Cynon Valley CC 44,418
CYNON VALLEY CC 44,418 100%
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney CC 55,476
MERTHYR TYDFIL AND RHYMNEY CC 55,476 100%
BLAENAU GWENT CC 0
(land with no electors)
Ogmore CC 51,016
OGMORE CC 51,016 100%
Pontypridd CC 62,937
PONTYPRIDD CC 54,122 86.0
CARDIFF WEST BC 4,961 7.9
CYNON VALLEY CC 3,854 6.1
Rhondda CC 50,389
RHONDDA CC 50,389 100%
South Glamorgan
Cardiff Central BC 60,864
CARDIFF CENTRAL BC 60,864 100%
Cardiff North BC 63,615
CARDIFF NORTH BC 63,615 100%
Cardiff South and Penarth BC 64,566
CARDIFF SOUTH and PENARTH BC 64,566 100%
Cardiff West BC 59,626
CARDIFF WEST BC 59,626 100%
Vale of Glamorgan CC 68,698
VALE of GLAMORGAN CC 65,409 95.2
CARDIFF SOUTH and PENARTH BC 3,289 4.8
West Glamorgan
Aberavon CC 50,422
ABERAVON CC 50,422 100%
Gower CC 60,524
GOWER CC 60,524 100%
Neath CC 56,993
NEATH CC 56,982 100%
GOWER CC 11 0.0
Swansea East BC 57,226
SWANSEA EAST BC 57,226 100%
Swansea West BC 58,336
SWANSEA WEST BC 58,336 100%
Gwent
Blaenau Gwent CC 53,120
BLAENAU GWENT CC 53,120 100%
Islwyn CC 51,667
ISLWYN CC 51,667 100%
Monmouth CC 62,423
MONMOUTH CC 62,423 100%
Newport East CC 56,355
NEWPORT EAST CC 56,355 100%
Newport West CC 60,882
NEWPORT WEST CC 60,882 100%
Torfaen CC 61,371
TORFAEN CC 61,371 100%
Gwynedd
Caernarfon CC 47,065
ARFON CC 24,994 53.1
DWYFOR MEIRIONNYDD CC 22,071 46.9
Conwy CC 55,009
ABERCONWY CC 37,005 67.3
ARFON CC 18,004 32.7
Meirionnydd Nant Conwy CC 33,723
DWYFOR MEIRIONNYDD CC 26,752 79.3
ABERCONWY CC 6,971 20.7
Ynys Mn CC 49,831
YNYS MÔN CC 49,831 100%
Powys
Brecon and Radnorshire CC 53,497
BRECON and RADNORSHIRE CC 53,497 100%
Montgomeryshire CC 45,297
MONTGOMERYSHIRE CC 45,297 100%
* * * THE NEW CONSTITUENCIES * * *
CLWYD
ABERCONWY CC 43,976
Conwy CC 37,005 84.1
Meirionnydd Nant Conwy CC 6,971 15.9
ALYN and DEESIDE CC 60,331
Alyn and Deeside CC 60,331 100%
CLWYD SOUTH CC 51,201
Clwyd South CC 51,201 100%
CLWYD WEST CC 55,381
Clwyd West CC 54,080 97.7
Clwyd South CC 1,301 2.3
DELYN CC 54,277
Delyn CC 54,277 100%
VALE of CLWYD CC 49,637
Vale of Clwyd CC 49,111 98.9
Clwyd West CC 526 1.1
WREXHAM CC 50,890
Wrexham CC 50,890 100%
DYFED
CARMARTHEN EAST and DINEFWR CC 52,741
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr CC 52,741 100%
CARMARTHEN WEST and SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE CC 57,143
Carmarthen West and South
Pembrokeshire CC 55,798 97.6
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr CC 1,345 2.4
CEREDIGION CC 52,514
Ceredigion CC 52,514 100%
LLANELLI CC 57,409
Llanelli CC 57,409 100%
PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE CC 56,001
Preseli Pembrokeshire CC 55,063 98.3
Carmarthen West and South
Pembrokeshire CC 593 1.1
Ceredigion CC 345 0.6
SOUTH GLAMORGAN
CARDIFF CENTRAL BC 60,864
Cardiff Central BC 60,864 100%
CARDIFF NORTH BC 63,615
Cardiff North BC 63,615 100%
CARDIFF SOUTH and PENARTH BC 67,855
Cardiff South and Penarth BC 64,566 95.2
Vale of Glamorgan CC 3,289 4.8
CARDIFF WEST BC 64,587
Cardiff West BC 59,626 92.3
Pontypridd CC 4,961 7.7
VALE of GLAMORGAN CC 68,229
Vale of Glamorgan CC 65,409 95.9
Bridgend CC 2,820 4.1
WEST GLAMORGAN
ABERAVON CC 50,422
Aberavon CC 50,422 100%
GOWER CC 60,535
Gower CC 60,524 100%
Neath CC 11 0.0
NEATH CC 56,982
Neath CC 56,982 100%
SWANSEA EAST BC 57,226
Swansea East BC 57,226 100%
SWANSEA WEST BC 58,336
Swansea West BC 58,336 100%
GWENT and MID GLAMORGAN
BLAENAU GWENT CC 53,120
Blaenau Gwent CC 53,120 100%
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney CC 0
(land with no electors)
BRIDGEND CC 57,046
Bridgend CC 57,046 100%
CAERPHILLY CC 64,120
Caerphilly CC 64,120 100%
CYNON VALLEY CC 48,272
Cynon Valley CC 44,418 92.0
Pontypridd CC 3,854 8.0
ISLWYN CC 56,225
Islwyn CC 51,667 91.9
Caerphilly CC 4,558 8.1
MERTHYR TYDFIL and RHYMNEY CC 55,476
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney CC 55,476 100%
MONMOUTH CC 62,423
Monmouth CC 62,423 100%
NEWPORT EAST CC 56,355
Newport East CC 56,355 100%
NEWPORT WEST CC 60,882
Newport West CC 60,882 100%
OGMORE CC 53,842
Ogmore CC 51,016 94.8
Bridgend CC 2,826 5.2
PONTYPRIDD CC 54,122
Pontypridd CC 54,122 100%
RHONDDA CC 50,389
Rhondda CC 50,389 100%
TORFAEN CC 61,371
Torfaen CC 61,371 100%
GWYNEDD
ARFON CC 42,998
Caernarfon CC 24,994 58.1
Conwy CC 18,004 41.9
DWYFOR MEIRIONNYDD CC 48,823
Meirionnydd Nant Conwy CC 26,752 54.8
Caernarfon CC 22,071 45.2
YNYS MÔN CC 49,831
Ynys Mn CC 49,831 100%
POWYS
BRECON and RADNORSHIRE CC 53,497
Brecon and Radnorshire CC 53,497 100%
MONTGOMERYSHIRE CC 46,655
Montgomeryshire CC 45,297 97.1
Clwyd South CC 1,358 2.9
* * * INDEX OF CHANGE * * *
Welsh Borough Constituencies
CARDIFF
Central 0
North 0
South and Penarth 5.1
West 8.3
SWANSEA
East 0
West 0
Welsh County Constituencies
CLWYD
Aberconwy 45.4
Alyn and Deeside 0
Clwyd South 4.9
Clwyd West 3.3
Delyn 0
Vale of Clwyd 1.1
Wrexham 0
DYFED
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr 2.5
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 3.4
Ceredigion 0
Llanelli 0
Preseli Pembrokeshire 1.7
SOUTH GLAMORGAN
Vale of Glamorgan 8.9
WEST GLAMORGAN
Aberavon 0
Gower 0.0
Neath 0.0
GWENT and MID GLAMORGAN
Blaenau Gwent 0.0
Bridgend 9.0
Caerphilly 6.6
Cynon Valley 8.7
Islwyn 8.8
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney 0.0
Monmouth 0
Newport East 0
Newport West 0
Ogmore 5.5
Pontypridd 14.0
Rhondda 0
Torfaen 0
GWYNEDD
Arfon 85.1
Dwyfor Meirionnydd 86.1
Ynys Mn 0
POWYS
Brecon and Radnorshire 0
Montgomeryshire 3.0
Totals:
17 Unchanged constituencies
7 minor changes (Index of Change lower than 5.0)
16 major changes
--
http://www.election.demon.co.uk
"We can also agree that Saddam Hussein most certainly has chemical and biolog-
ical weapons and is working towards a nuclear capability. The dossier contains
confirmation of information that we either knew or most certainly should have
been willing to assume." - Menzies Campbell, 24th September 2002.
date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 13:30:55 +0000
author: David Boothroyd
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Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
In article , david@election.demon.co.uk (David Boothroyd) wrote:
> CLWYD
> Aberconwy 45.4
> GWYNEDD
> Arfon 85.1
> Dwyfor Meirionnydd 86.1
Clearly the most radical changes are proposed in this area. Is there a map showing the changes online?
--
Cllr. Colin Rosenstiel
Cambridge http://www.rosenstiel.co.uk/
Cambridge Liberal Democrats: http://www.cambridgelibdems.org.uk/
date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 20:51 +0000 (GMT Standard Time)
author: (Colin Rosenstiel)
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Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
In article ,
rosenstiel@cix.co.uk (Colin Rosenstiel) wrote:
> In article ,
> david@election.demon.co.uk (David Boothroyd) wrote:
>
> > CLWYD
> > Aberconwy 45.4
>
> > GWYNEDD
> > Arfon 85.1
> > Dwyfor Meirionnydd 86.1
>
> Clearly the most radical changes are proposed in this area. Is there a map
> showing the changes online?
Yes - http://www.bcomm-wales.gov.uk/bcwengreviewareas.htm
The changes there were forced by the use of the 'preserved county of
Clwyd' which includes the Conwy council area. This splits up the Conwy
constituency. Then something had to be done about the disparity between
Meirionnydd Nant Conwy and Caernarfon.
--
http://www.election.demon.co.uk
"We can also agree that Saddam Hussein most certainly has chemical and biolog-
ical weapons and is working towards a nuclear capability. The dossier contains
confirmation of information that we either knew or most certainly should have
been willing to assume." - Menzies Campbell, 24th September 2002.
date: Wed, 28 Dec 2005 21:13:17 +0000
author: David Boothroyd
|
Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
> The Fifth Periodical Report of the Parliamentary Boundary Commission for Wales was published earlier this month (HC 743-I and HC 743-II).
Presumably these can be purchased through HMSO? Do you have any other
information, e.g. price, ISBN, etc.?
date: 29 Dec 2005 05:09:23 -0800
author: unknown
|
Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
In article ,
ColinJGSG@aol.com wrote:
> > The Fifth Periodical Report of the Parliamentary Boundary Commission for
> > Wales was published earlier this month (HC 743-I and HC 743-II).
>
> Presumably these can be purchased through HMSO? Do you have any other
> information, e.g. price, ISBN, etc.?
£60 for the two volumes together. (Quite a steep rise from last time's
which only cost £18.20 in 1995) ISBN 0-10-293660-9.
As usual for Welsh reports, it's bilingual.
--
http://www.election.demon.co.uk
"We can also agree that Saddam Hussein most certainly has chemical and biolog-
ical weapons and is working towards a nuclear capability. The dossier contains
confirmation of information that we either knew or most certainly should have
been willing to assume." - Menzies Campbell, 24th September 2002.
date: Thu, 29 Dec 2005 15:28:42 +0000
author: David Boothroyd
|
Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
Can the report not be downloaded? most of these type reports are
usually obtainable on the web.
On another notes has anyone made any notional calculation for the new
Arfon seat and Aberconwy seat, while I have no doubt Arfon will be
notionally PC and Aberconwy Labour the actual margins would be
interesting.
Martin
David Boothroyd wrote:
> In article ,
> ColinJGSG@aol.com wrote:
> > > The Fifth Periodical Report of the Parliamentary Boundary Commission for
> > > Wales was published earlier this month (HC 743-I and HC 743-II).
> >
> > Presumably these can be purchased through HMSO? Do you have any other
> > information, e.g. price, ISBN, etc.?
>
> £60 for the two volumes together. (Quite a steep rise from last time's
> which only cost £18.20 in 1995) ISBN 0-10-293660-9.
>
> As usual for Welsh reports, it's bilingual.
>
> --
> http://www.election.demon.co.uk
> "We can also agree that Saddam Hussein most certainly has chemical and biolog-
> ical weapons and is working towards a nuclear capability. The dossier contains
> confirmation of information that we either knew or most certainly should have
> been willing to assume." - Menzies Campbell, 24th September 2002.
date: 29 Dec 2005 12:20:10 -0800
author: MJW
|
Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
In article ,
oliver_twomey@hotmail.com wrote:
>
> Thanks for this. It seems that most of the changes are minor ones
> necessitated by changes in local authority boundaries. Most of these
> are unexceptional, though the ward changes in Denbighshire produce an
> odd boundary between Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd West.
>
> It's the fairly arbitrary decision to include the Conwy UA with the
> notional "Clwyd" that produces the main changes in North Wales
This decision was made by the colonial governor John Redwood in the
Local Government (Wales) Act 1994 which defined the 'preserved
counties'.
--
http://www.election.demon.co.uk
"We can also agree that Saddam Hussein most certainly has chemical and biolog-
ical weapons and is working towards a nuclear capability. The dossier contains
confirmation of information that we either knew or most certainly should have
been willing to assume." - Menzies Campbell, 24th September 2002.
date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 15:41:14 +0000
author: David Boothroyd
|
Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
wrote in message
news:1135940120.429532.11430@g49g2000cwa.googlegroups.com...
> Since the reduction in the number of Scottish seats these are generally
> the smallest ones in the UK. If, as proposed, the Welsh Assembly gets
> similar powers to the Scottish Parliament, then presumably it would be
> necessary to reduce the number of seats here. That would be fascinating
> - it would be relatively easy to reorganise in densely populated South
> Wales, and Clwyd and Dyfed would each lose a seat, but what would
> happen in Gwynedd and Powys? With Anglesey presumably untouchable,
> would there be a cross-border seat linking Montgomery and Meirionydd?
> It would be difficult to argue for the status quo.
You could spread the Ynys Mon under-representation across the Gwynnedd and
Clywd seats (although on my model they're already slightly above the
electoral average), but here's how a scheme with seats close to the English
quota might look. Again, I've tried to respect county boundaries broadly;
but Gwent and South Glamorgan are combined and West Glamorgan and Powys are
combined - 32 seats:
Brecon & Neath: 69,558
Bridgend: 68,648
Cardiff Central: 71,073
Cardiff North & Caerphilly: 66,856
Cardiff South & Penarth: 71,730
Cardiff West: 70,277
Carmarthen: 66,056
Ceredigion & Pembroke North: 70,914
Clwyd & Denbigh: 75,065
Colwyn Bay & Conwy: 72,413
Ebbw Vale & Tredegar: 68,144
Flint & Deeside: 71,099
Flintshire, Prestatyn & Rhyl: 74,042
Gower: 70,637
Llanelli: 67,409
Meirionnydd & Caernarfon: 73,807
Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare: 70,536
Monmouth: 70,819
Montgomeryshire & Radnorshire: 69,333
Newport East: 69,848
Newport West & Newbridge: 66,452
Ogmore & Port Talbot: 66,601
Pembroke: 70,529
Pontypridd: 67,328
Rhondda: 67,417
Rhymney Valley
Swansea East & Coedffranc: 66,323
Swansea West: 65,938
Torfaen & Cwmbram: 69,616
Vale of Glamorgan: 69,765
Wrexham: 72,280
Ynys Mon with Bangor: 67,835
date: Fri, 30 Dec 2005 16:59:22 -0000
author: Adam Gray
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Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
Thanks for this. It seems that most of the changes are minor ones
necessitated by changes in local authority boundaries. Most of these
are unexceptional, though the ward changes in Denbighshire produce an
odd boundary between Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd West.
It's the fairly arbitrary decision to include the Conwy UA with the
notional "Clwyd" that produces the main changes in North Wales - had
Conwy been included with "Gwynedd", which makes equal sense, then those
seats would have been relatively unchanged, but the Denbighshire
portions of the current Clwyd West would have had to be divided between
Vale and Clwyd South. However, that would make the disparity in average
seat size between Gwynedd and Clwyd even more acute.
It's odd that the name of a county that no longer exists is preserved
in three cases (no other abolished county still features). Vale of
Clwyd is a fair description, Clwyd West is odder - "Colwyn and Ruthin"
might be better, though the Colwyn element is much bigger - and "Clwyd
South" is fairly meaningless as none (or almost none?) of the seat
drains into the Clwyd. "Dee Valley" would be a much better name, as
just about the only thing that links the communities in this disparate
constituency is the fact that much of it is on or near the Dee, and
almost all of it is in the catchment area.
Abolished Unitary authority names also survive. It's worthwhile when
these have historical significance, like Arfon, Dwyfor and the old
county names; but it seems lacking in imagination to preserve
artificial names like "Delyn" and "Alyn & Deeside".
Since the reduction in the number of Scottish seats these are generally
the smallest ones in the UK. If, as proposed, the Welsh Assembly gets
similar powers to the Scottish Parliament, then presumably it would be
necessary to reduce the number of seats here. That would be fascinating
- it would be relatively easy to reorganise in densely populated South
Wales, and Clwyd and Dyfed would each lose a seat, but what would
happen in Gwynedd and Powys? With Anglesey presumably untouchable,
would there be a cross-border seat linking Montgomery and Meirionydd?
It would be difficult to argue for the status quo.
date: 30 Dec 2005 02:55:20 -0800
author: unknown
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Re: Welsh Boundary Changes
I hesitate to criticise something that's taken more time and effort
than I could spare, but here are my thoughts anyway. The map helped me
see what you were getting at. I'm commenting more on communities, as I
don't have the ward populations in front of me, so my suggestions may
be more "off quota" than yours. I'm less qualified to discuss South
Wales but the smaller areas mean you're less likely to get unwieldy
seats.
>Brecon & Neath: 69,558
I see you've kept the Builth area with Radnor, with which it has strong
ties. But it would be worth keeping a seat as historic as Brecon and
Radnor - if it is too much below quota, could it not be reuinited with
its former areas of Vaynor and Penderyn and Brynmawr? I realise this is
crossing two county boundaries and that current ward boundaries might
not allow this.
>Bridgend: 68,648
>Cardiff Central: 71,073
>Cardiff North & Caerphilly: 66,856
>Cardiff South & Penarth: 71,730
>Cardiff West: 70,277
I don't see why the City of Cardiff shouldn't have just three seats,
rather than taking two of them outside it - the odd ward could be moved
in or out as needed. However, I once proposed thios for Belfast where
it's equally logocal, but there were apparently all sorts of reasons
why this couldn't be done.
>Carmarthen: 66,056
>Ceredigion & Pembroke North: 70,914
I think it would be better to recreate the old seat, putting the St
David's area in with Fishguard, and the centre of the county, which is
in the Haverfordwest orbit, into Pembroke - that would make for a
slightly smaller seat in area, with easier communications, and also
approximate the boundary to the Landsker.
>Clwyd & Denbigh: 75,065
>Colwyn Bay & Conwy: 72,413
Hmmm - a very compact urban seat and a huge rural one with more
electors than the quota. Would it not be better to have a seat based on
the old Conwy UA, with that valley and Colwyn Bay and as much of its
hinterland as was needed - and then another based on Abergele, Denbigh
and Ruthin - the centre of the old Denbighshire has more links with
theses towns than any others. It still leaves the south of the county
in with areas with which it has little in common, save being in the old
Denbigh seat. Perhaps the compact area around Coedpoeth and Brymbo
could go into this seat, and the Ceiriog valley in with Wrexham.
>Ebbw Vale & Tredegar: 68,144
>Flint & Deeside: 71,099
>Flintshire, Prestatyn & Rhyl: 74,042
Another compact seat next to an unwieldy one. I suppose you're trying
to recreate the old East and West Flint, but even then the far south of
the county was all in East. This seat combines areas in the Wrexham
orbit with some that used to be in Abergele (CMIIR).
Would it not be better to combine the Mold area with the Alyn and
Deeside seat which surrounds it on three sides, and has a continuous
urban area, and put Flint in with Rhyl and Prestatyn, which are nearer?
>Gower: 70,637
>Llanelli: 67,409
>Meirionnydd & Caernarfon: 73,807
Another big seat with an electorate over the quota. If Anglesey is to
remain separate, would the electorates for Arfon plus Dwyfor, and
Meirionydd plus Montgomery, be very far away from the quota?
>Merthyr Tydfil & Aberdare: 70,536
>Monmouth: 70,819
>Montgomeryshire & Radnorshire: 69,333
>Newport East: 69,848
>Newport West & Newbridge: 66,452
>Ogmore & Port Talbot: 66,601
>Pembroke: 70,529
>Pontypridd: 67,328
>Rhondda: 67,417
>Rhymney Valley
>Swansea East & Coedffranc: 66,323
>Swansea West: 65,938
>Torfaen & Cwmbram: 69,616
>Vale of Glamorgan: 69,765
>Wrexham: 72,280
>Ynys Mon with Bangor: 67,835
I confess I though that the notional Clwyd would reduce to six seats
rather than five. Six is not a problem - the area reverts to roughly
the seats it had before 1997. Going back to five roughly recreates the
pre-1983 situation, except that the BC would not create a seat as
unwieldy as the old Denbigh nowadays.
Creating 5 seats out of 4 UAs would normally mean basing 4 seats on the
core areas of those UAs and a fifth on the surplus areas - but that
won't work here as the surplus of the most populous UA - Flintshire -
is so far away from the surplus of the rest. So I suppose Rhyl and
Prestatyn have to go back with Flintshire, separating them from their
hinterland.
By the time the next review occurs, Clwyd might have grown to be
entitled to six seats, or at least 5.5 - in which case your 8-seat
suggestion for all North Wales might be considered.
date: 2 Jan 2006 09:23:28 -0800
author: unknown
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