Chrissy wrote:

>On Oct 3, 7:27 pm, real-address-in-...@flur.bltigibbet (Rowland
>McDonnell) wrote:
>> Owain  wrote:
>> > Rowland McDonnell wrote:
>> > > But given that people *think* that it does, you're better off putting
>> > > your money on 38 in this sort of situation: it won't affect your chances
>> > > of winning, but since fewer people will be selecting that number if it's
>> > > turned up several times in a row, if you *do* win, you'll get a bigger
>> > > share of the pot.
>>
>> > That is why I suggest (although I don't pay the stupidity tax) putting
>> > on multiple lines with the same numbers. The likelihood of winning is
>> > doubled from microscopically small to microscopically less small,
>>
>> Surely if you run the same numbers twice on the one draw, you fail to
>> modify your chances of winning?
>>
>> > but
>> > the prize could double if I get two shares of it.
>>
>> I've never played the National Lottery and I never will.
>>
>> Rowland.
>>
>> --
>> Remove the animal for email address: rowland.mcdonn...@dog.physics.org
>>                                             Sorry - the spam got to mehttp://www.mag-uk.org                           http://www.bmf.co.uk
>> UK biker?   Join MAG and the BMF and stop the Eurocrats banning biking
>
>Are the chances of me winning the lottery more or less than the chance
>of me being struck by lightening?

Not many people know this but if you buy one lottery ticket per week
and you are out in thunderstorms only as much as average over a year,
then you are 40-50 times more likely to win the lottery than you are
to be killed by lightning.

According to: http://www.zyra.org.uk/probab1.htm

For every person killed by lightning another four people are struck so
that means you divide the more time likely to win than killed by 4 to
give a figure of 10-12.5 times more likely win the lottery than be
struck by lightning (over a year).

For one ticket bought, what chance winning and being struck by
lightning on that one day then, I hear you ask (I also heard
firemonkey ask what are the chances of winning the lottery and being
struck by lightning on the same day, but first things first). Now,
your chances of winning are 51 times less (than the yearly figure) and
your chances of being killed by lightning are 355 times less (unless
it's a leap year and then it's 356 times less, of course). And don't
forget for every 1 person killed another 4 are struck and not
killed... so... I'm going out now, so it's a good job I've managed to
do all the hard work for you.  :)

Check.
 
When I said:

>...your chances of being killed by lightning are 355 times less
>(unless it's a leap year and then it's 356 times less, of course).

I was, of course, talking complete rubbish (given that there are 365
days in a year)... nothing new there then, unfortunately... okay, I'll
shut up now.

Ariel wrote:

> 
> According to: http://www.zyra.org.uk/probab1.htm

It's been a long time since i looked at that site :)

firemonkey wrote:

>Ariel wrote:
>
>> 
>> According to: http://www.zyra.org.uk/probab1.htm
>
>It's been a long time since i looked at that site :)

I don't get it, what's it about this site? I just googled and it came
up. What... don't you just hate it when you don't know what's going
on?

"Ariel"  wrote in message 
news:oftfe4pludb3jdvcgok1edoh4lmn6r5ln4@4ax.com...
> firemonkey wrote:
>
>>Ariel wrote:
>>
>>>
>>> According to: http://www.zyra.org.uk/probab1.htm
>>
>>It's been a long time since i looked at that site :)
>
> I don't get it, what's it about this site? I just googled and it came
> up. What... don't you just hate it when you don't know what's going
> on?
>

He's reached the end of the internet and now he's beginning anew.

On Sat, 04 Oct 2008 19:36:54 +0100, Ariel blathered:

> Not many people know this but if you buy one lottery ticket per week
> and you are out in thunderstorms only as much as average over a year,
> then you are 40-50 times more likely to win the lottery than you are
> to be killed by lightning.

I'm too lazy to figure it out in detail and it's been a long time since I
took Probability theory, but that sounds suspect to me. For sure, for any
one given instance the probability is the same. And I don't think
probability is cumulative in that way. What really gives it away is a plug
for a shareware program to pick lottery numbers. It all sounds like baloney
to me.
-- 
"I've been using Usenet since before the Web was invented -
probably before you were born."
Rowland McDonnell - Inventor of Usenet - 15 Nov 2007

CJ Dunnaway wrote:

>"Ariel"  wrote in message 
>news:oftfe4pludb3jdvcgok1edoh4lmn6r5ln4@4ax.com...
>> firemonkey wrote:
>>
>>>Ariel wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>> According to: http://www.zyra.org.uk/probab1.htm
>>>
>>>It's been a long time since i looked at that site :)
>>
>> I don't get it, what's it about this site? I just googled and it came
>> up. What... don't you just hate it when you don't know what's going
>> on?
>>
>
>He's reached the end of the internet and now he's beginning anew. 

Lol! 

For some reason, the obvious seemed to be eluding me yesterday. It
didn't occur to me that he meant the site was an old one. Before
looking for deeper meaning, it's probably a good idea to first
understand the straightforward one.

Malicious Toad wrote:

>On Sat, 04 Oct 2008 19:36:54 +0100, Ariel blathered:
>
>> Not many people know this but if you buy one lottery ticket per week
>> and you are out in thunderstorms only as much as average over a year,
>> then you are 40-50 times more likely to win the lottery than you are
>> to be killed by lightning.
>
>I'm too lazy to figure it out in detail and it's been a long time since I
>took Probability theory, but that sounds suspect to me. For sure, for any
>one given instance the probability is the same. And I don't think
>probability is cumulative in that way. What really gives it away is a plug
>for a shareware program to pick lottery numbers. It all sounds like baloney
>to me.

Yes. I always fall for those April fool things too, if they just kept
them all for 1st April I might learn to spot them better.

Rowland McDonnell wrote:

>Ariel  wrote:
>
>[snip]
>
>> Not many people know this but if you buy one lottery ticket per week
>> and you are out in thunderstorms only as much as average over a year,
>> then you are 40-50 times more likely to win the lottery than you are
>> to be killed by lightning.
>> 
>> According to: http://www.zyra.org.uk/probab1.htm
>> 
>> For every person killed by lightning another four people are struck so
>> that means you divide the more time likely to win than killed by 4 to
>> give a figure of 10-12.5 times more likely win the lottery than be
>> struck by lightning (over a year).
>
>Yes, but...  That assumes - as you stated - that everyone has an equal
>chance of being struck by lightning.
>
>If you're not exposed to the risk - let's say you live in the middle of
>a big city and never go to the park or otherwise put yourself somewhere
>that lightning might strike - then you'll be at very low risk.
>
>If, on the other hand, you play golf and sometimes stay out when the
>weather gets bad, you'll be at significantly higher risk.  Golf?  Think
>of the umbrellas, and the waving of the metal stick in the air.
>
>[snip]
>
>Rowland.

That's right, of course, I shouldn't need the obvious pointed out to
me but I'm thankful it is when needed, I don't always want to be this
dumb.
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