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McGovern: A Miracle - Honest Intel on Iran Nukes

Via NY Transfer News Collective  *  All the News that Doesn't Fit
 
Consortium News - Dec 3, 2007
http://www.consortiumnews.com/2007/120307.html

A Miracle: Honest Intel on Iran Nukes

By Ray McGovern

For those who have doubts about miracles, a double one occurred today.
An honest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Irans nuclear
program has been issued and its Key Judgments were made public.

With redraft after redraft, it was what the Germans call eine schwere
Geburt"a difficult birth, ten months in gestation.

I do not know how often Vice President Dick Cheney visited CIA
Headquarters during the gestation period, but I am told he voiced his
displeasure as soon as he saw the first sonogram/draft very early this
year, and is so displeased with what issued that he has refused to be
the godfather.

This time Cheney and his neo-con colleagues were unable to abort the
process. And after delivery to the press, this child is going to be
very hard to explain"the more so since it is legitimate.

The main points of the NIE:

We judge that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons
program...

We assess with moderate confidence Tehran has not restarted its
nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.

We do not have sufficient intelligence to judge confidently whether
Tehran is willing to maintain the halt of its nuclear weapons program
indefinitely...

We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically
capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium sometime during the
2010-2015 time frame.

We judge with high confidence that Iran will not be technically
capable of producing and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon
before about 2015.

Having reached these conclusions, it is not surprising that the NIEs
authors make a point of saying up front (in bold type) This NIE does
not (italics in original) assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear
weapons.

This, of course, pulls out the rug from under Cheneys claim of a
fairly robust new nuclear program in Iran, and President Bushs
inaccurate assertion that Iranian leaders have even admitted they are
developing nuclear weapons.

Apparently, intelligence community analysts are no longer required to
produce the faith-based intelligence that brought us the Oct. 1, 2002,
NIE Iraqs Continuing Program for Weapons of Mass Destruction"the
worst in the history of U.S. intelligence.

Truth be told, one of the Iran NIEs findings was written into its
first draft, from which Director of National Intelligence Michael
McConnell drew in telling the Senate Armed Services Committee on Feb.
27 that Iran could possibly develop a nuclear weapon by
early-to-mid-next decade.

McConnell said not a word, though, about Irans having halted its
nuclear weapons program in fall 2003. And in February, he was still
adhering to the faith-based approach, saying, We assess that Iran
seeks to develop a nuclear weapon.

At which point, Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-South Carolina, tried to sum up
the proceedings with the disingenuous comment, We all agree, then,
that the Iranians are trying to get nuclear weapons.

Curiously, McConnell indicated recently that the key findings of NIEs
would no longer be made public.

My guess is that the Pentagon, and especially Adm. William Fallon,
commander of our forces in the Middle East, succeeded in persuading
McConnell to go public. Several months ago, Fallon was reliably
reported to have said, We are not going to do Iran on my watch.

And it is an open secret that he and other senior military officers,
except those of the Air Force, are strongly opposed to getting into a
war with Iran for which the U.S. is so ill prepared.

Will President George W. Bush and our domesticated media succeed in
dismissing this latest NIE as guesswork, as he has in the past? It is
going to be highly interesting to see how the White House will try to
spin this one.


[Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the
ecumenical Church of the Saviour.  During his 27-year career as a CIA
analyst, he chaired National Intelligence Estimates and
produced/briefed the Presidents Daily Brief.  He is now on the
Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).]


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