It is now evident that property values are crashing heavily.

This Winter is going to be even bleaker for the housing market. If you can't 
sell it in July, you've got no chance in January.





"The Halifax calculates the annual change using an average of the last three 
months, compared with the same three months a year earlier. The lender says 
this smoothes out short-term fluctuations.

This was the first time the figure has fallen by double-digits since the 
survey began in 1983.

Comparing the average price for August alone, there was a 12.7% fall from 
£199,612 in August 2007 to £174,178 in August 2008"

Source,  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7597520.stm







My predictions, here to be archived forever on Usenet...



Next month, Halifax figures show an annual fall in excess of -15% (this 
month's figures are already the worst since 1931).

As we go into 2009, house prices will have fallen 22% from peak.

At the end of 2009, house prices will have fallen by 42-43% from peak.



Thank God I sold when I did!


-- 
Regards, Vince.

Harry Monk's Long Distance Diary   Luton-Huelva

http://trucknetuk.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=34657 (New 9th August 2008)

"Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message 
news:XK6dndMUjPU6FFzVnZ2dnUVZ8h-dnZ2d@bt.com...
> It is now evident that property values are crashing heavily.
>
> This Winter is going to be even bleaker for the housing market. If you 
> can't sell it in July, you've got no chance in January.
>
>
>
>
>
> "The Halifax calculates the annual change using an average of the last 
> three months, compared with the same three months a year earlier. The 
> lender says this smoothes out short-term fluctuations.
>
> This was the first time the figure has fallen by double-digits since the 
> survey began in 1983.
>
> Comparing the average price for August alone, there was a 12.7% fall from 
> £199,612 in August 2007 to £174,178 in August 2008"
>
> Source,  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7597520.stm
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> My predictions, here to be archived forever on Usenet...
>
>
>
> Next month, Halifax figures show an annual fall in excess of -15% (this 
> month's figures are already the worst since 1931).
>
> As we go into 2009, house prices will have fallen 22% from peak.
>
> At the end of 2009, house prices will have fallen by 42-43% from peak.
>

That is an accurate prediction. 42-43%? It might happen by 2014.

>
> Thank God I sold when I did!

You are joking? You could have made 50% by now and kept your house. And did 
you not also predict that interest rates would go up? In a depression 
everything goes down; interest rates, prices, jobs. But at least you have 
cash which is ahead of most people.

I will do you a favour. Read "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Prechter. He will 
tell you how to survive and keep your cash when the banks start crashing.

"Not Today"  wrote


>
 42-43%? It might happen by 2014.






The bottom of the House Price Crash will be February 2010.

In 2014 the next Boom will be in mid-term.






-- 
Regards, Vince.

Harry Monk's Long Distance Diary   Luton-Huelva

http://trucknetuk.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=34657 (New 9th August 2008)

"Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message 
news:trCdnQLK3_2tAVzVnZ2dnUVZ8jqdnZ2d@bt.com...
> "Not Today"  wrote
>
>
>>
> 42-43%? It might happen by 2014.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> The bottom of the House Price Crash will be February 2010.
>
> In 2014 the next Boom will be in mid-term.

Wishful thinking. You have been reading conventional wisdom. Do not say you 
were not warned.

You have made 10% so far, I have made 50% and kept my house. Do not fall 
into the bear trap in 2010, it will be what is known as a sucker's rally. 
That is my last piece of advice. You obviously know it all!

"Not Today"  wrote in message 
news:25os3d.8ap.19.1@news.alt.net...
>
> "Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message 
> news:trCdnQLK3_2tAVzVnZ2dnUVZ8jqdnZ2d@bt.com...
>> "Not Today"  wrote
>>
>>
>>>
>> 42-43%? It might happen by 2014.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> The bottom of the House Price Crash will be February 2010.
>>
>> In 2014 the next Boom will be in mid-term.
>
> Wishful thinking. You have been reading conventional wisdom. Do not say 
> you were not warned.
>
> You have made 10% so far, I have made 50% and kept my house. Do not fall 
> into the bear trap in 2010, it will be what is known as a sucker's rally. 
> That is my last piece of advice. You obviously know it all!

I am wondering, did you read the rest of my post about a book you should 
read?

"Not Today"  wrote in message 
news:25ook9.ra0.19.1@news.alt.net...
>
> "Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message 
> news:XK6dndMUjPU6FFzVnZ2dnUVZ8h-dnZ2d@bt.com...
>> It is now evident that property values are crashing heavily.
>>
>> This Winter is going to be even bleaker for the housing market. If you 
>> can't sell it in July, you've got no chance in January.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> "The Halifax calculates the annual change using an average of the last 
>> three months, compared with the same three months a year earlier. The 
>> lender says this smoothes out short-term fluctuations.
>>
>> This was the first time the figure has fallen by double-digits since the 
>> survey began in 1983.
>>
>> Comparing the average price for August alone, there was a 12.7% fall from 
>> £199,612 in August 2007 to £174,178 in August 2008"
>>
>> Source,  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7597520.stm
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> My predictions, here to be archived forever on Usenet...
>>
>>
>>
>> Next month, Halifax figures show an annual fall in excess of -15% (this 
>> month's figures are already the worst since 1931).
>>
>> As we go into 2009, house prices will have fallen 22% from peak.
>>
>> At the end of 2009, house prices will have fallen by 42-43% from peak.
>>
>
> That is an accurate prediction. 42-43%? It might happen by 2014.
>
>>
>> Thank God I sold when I did!
>
> You are joking? You could have made 50% by now and kept your house. And 
> did you not also predict that interest rates would go up? In a depression 
> everything goes down; interest rates, prices, jobs. But at least you have 
> cash which is ahead of most people.
>
> I will do you a favour. Read "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Prechter. He 
> will tell you how to survive and keep your cash when the banks start 
> crashing.


I'm ready

Inventory:

Guns and ammo
Canned food for 1 year
Water for 1 year
Generator and fuel
1 years supply of porn

Nigel Brooks

"Nigel Brooks"  wrote in message 
news:6idl0iFqapsdU1@mid.individual.net...
>
>
> "Not Today"  wrote in message 
> news:25ook9.ra0.19.1@news.alt.net...
>>
>> "Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message 
>> news:XK6dndMUjPU6FFzVnZ2dnUVZ8h-dnZ2d@bt.com...
>>> It is now evident that property values are crashing heavily.
>>>
>>> This Winter is going to be even bleaker for the housing market. If you 
>>> can't sell it in July, you've got no chance in January.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> "The Halifax calculates the annual change using an average of the last 
>>> three months, compared with the same three months a year earlier. The 
>>> lender says this smoothes out short-term fluctuations.
>>>
>>> This was the first time the figure has fallen by double-digits since the 
>>> survey began in 1983.
>>>
>>> Comparing the average price for August alone, there was a 12.7% fall 
>>> from £199,612 in August 2007 to £174,178 in August 2008"
>>>
>>> Source,  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7597520.stm
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> My predictions, here to be archived forever on Usenet...
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Next month, Halifax figures show an annual fall in excess of -15% (this 
>>> month's figures are already the worst since 1931).
>>>
>>> As we go into 2009, house prices will have fallen 22% from peak.
>>>
>>> At the end of 2009, house prices will have fallen by 42-43% from peak.
>>>
>>
>> That is an accurate prediction. 42-43%? It might happen by 2014.
>>
>>>
>>> Thank God I sold when I did!
>>
>> You are joking? You could have made 50% by now and kept your house. And 
>> did you not also predict that interest rates would go up? In a depression 
>> everything goes down; interest rates, prices, jobs. But at least you have 
>> cash which is ahead of most people.
>>
>> I will do you a favour. Read "Conquer the Crash" by Robert Prechter. He 
>> will tell you how to survive and keep your cash when the banks start 
>> crashing.
>
>
> I'm ready
>
> Inventory:
>
> Guns and ammo
> Canned food for 1 year
> Water for 1 year
> Generator and fuel
> 1 years supply of porn

3 years would be a safer bet but keep to 1 year of porn. You do not want to 
come out of it broke and exhausted. :-)

"Not Today"  wrote


>
> I am wondering, did you read the rest of my post about a book you should 
> read?




Yes, thank you, but I think I've already got it worked out for myself.


Here's what an estate agent said to a friend of mine just today...


''We keep reducing the asking prices trying to find the new market level but 
we haven't found it yet. I go out doing valuations and I know what peoples 
aspirations are but I dont know at what price houses are going to start 
selling again''




This estate agent had been in the buisness in the last recession.




-- 
Regards, Vince.

Harry Monk's Long Distance Diary   Luton-Huelva

http://trucknetuk.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=34657 (New 9th August 2008)

"Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message 
news:HYWdnaikupZfOFzVnZ2dnUVZ8g6dnZ2d@bt.com...
>
>
> "Not Today"  wrote
>
>
>>
>> I am wondering, did you read the rest of my post about a book you should 
>> read?
>
>
>
>
> Yes, thank you, but I think I've already got it worked out for myself.
>
>
> Here's what an estate agent said to a friend of mine just today...
>
>
> ''We keep reducing the asking prices trying to find the new market level 
> but we haven't found it yet. I go out doing valuations and I know what 
> peoples aspirations are but I dont know at what price houses are going to 
> start selling again''
>
>
>
>
> This estate agent had been in the buisness in the last recession.


You are taking advice from estate agents? That reminds me of the story of 
the bull market sage. You know it is time to sell when the janitor starts 
giving you stock market tips. Nobody can accurately predict the bottom of 
this market. And estate agents have lost the plot.It is nothing to do with 
peoples aspirations. No matter how low they pitch the level the banks are in 
no position to lend money on houses. They are in no position to lend money 
period. You are getting too tied up on house prices. What is coming will 
make a nonsense of everything. Darling was right, this is the worst crisis 
for 60 years. It cannot be "put right". If you do not understand cyclical 
economics and wave mass psychology you will lose out like the majority.

"Not Today"  wrote


> You are taking advice from estate agents?

No, where did I say that?






>  Nobody can accurately predict the bottom of this market.


I can. Spring 2010.




>And estate agents have lost the plot.


I agree.



If you do not understand cyclical
> economics and wave mass psychology you will lose out like the majority.


I know, that's why I sold in September 2007 and am renting.





We can expect to see many more Christopher Fosters in the months to come.




-- 
Regards, Vince.

Harry Monk's Long Distance Diary   Luton-Huelva

http://trucknetuk.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=34657 (New 9th August 2008)

> My predictions, here to be archived forever on Usenet...

> At the end of 2009, house prices will have fallen by 42-43% from peak.

Just to clarify your statement a bit, when do you consider the peak to have
been?

A 42-43% drop from now would probably only wipe out the last 18-24 months
gains where I'm living - hardly something to worry about unless you're one
of these people who ups sticks every few years.

Now if prices dropped wiping out the last 12-18 YEARS gains, then I'd be
pretty pissed off if I'd bought my house within that timeframe and I needed
to sell now.

But that's the point about the housing market woes isn't it? People will
only lose out if they are selling properties they bought at a higher price
than its worth now...and even if your house price is lower than when you
bought it on paper and you're not planning on moving, there's no current
problem.  As long as you like living in your property and can pay your
mortgage or even better, if you have no mortgage, I can't see what all the
fuss is about.

The only losers will be the unfortunates who have no other choice in having
to sell now, those who lack time in waiting for a better time to sell and
those who like to flit about and gamble on rising prices and happen to make
the bad decisions at the wrong times. Which narrows down the effect of this
crisis considerably. In fact, the worst case scenario must be that someone
paid a fortune for a property in the last 12 months or so and need to sell
it now asap at a low double-digit loss. How many people would that be?
Millions? Or just a few thousand?

<nospam@nospam.invalid> wrote
>
> Just to clarify your statement a bit, when do you consider the peak to 
> have
> been?







August 2007 according to the Halifax...


(Source http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php )


October 2007 according to the Nationwide (Source 
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national.php )


Sometime between August and October 2007, it's fair to say.

Personally I would like to think it was September 16th 2007, my 48th 
birthday.









-- 
Regards, Vince.

Harry Monk's Long Distance Diary   Luton-Huelva

http://trucknetuk.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=34657 (New 9th August 2008)

"Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message
news:TOOdnWBBaNdgM1zVnZ2dnUVZ8qXinZ2d@bt.com...
>
>
> "Not Today"  wrote
>
>
>> You are taking advice from estate agents?
>
> No, where did I say that?

What was the point of quoting one then if you do not think what he said had
any credence?

"Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message
news:UYSdnWzJNKFcU1zVnZ2dnUVZ8vudnZ2d@bt.com...
>
>
> <nospam@nospam.invalid> wrote
>>
>> Just to clarify your statement a bit, when do you consider the peak to
>> have
>> been?
>
>
>
> August 2007 according to the Halifax...
>
>
> (Source http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-halifax-national.php )
>
>
> October 2007 according to the Nationwide (Source
> http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/indices-nationwide-national.php )
>
>
> Sometime between August and October 2007, it's fair to say.
>
> Personally I would like to think it was September 16th 2007, my 48th
> birthday.

Which makes your prediction of a fall  of 42-43% from the peak pretty
meaningless because if you cannot define the peak you cannot predict the
fall to an accuracy of 1%. It is an absurd prediction in any case. Stock
markets, commodities, houses, rise and fall by a close correlation to
Fibonacci numbers which are 38.2, 50, 61.8, 78.6, 100 from trough to peak or
from peak to trough.

I am the first to admit you can do anything with statistics but take a look
at the FT House Price Index. http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/ftHousePrices.php

This shows that year on year to July 2008 house prices actually went up! The
reason for the disparity is that the FT index includes all completed
transactions; the Halifax and Nationwide only include mortgage offers.
Considering the Halifax is nearly broke and have issued 60% fewer mortgages
this year then it is not suprising that their survey shows an exaggerated
fall. The fact is that there is not a market in houses at the moment, people
are sitting tight.

<nospam@nospam.invalid> wrote in message
news:usjwk.140203$6p1.103460@newsfe19.ams2...
>> My predictions, here to be archived forever on Usenet...
>
>> At the end of 2009, house prices will have fallen by 42-43% from peak.
>
> Just to clarify your statement a bit, when do you consider the peak to
> have
> been?
>
> A 42-43% drop from now would probably only wipe out the last 18-24 months
> gains where I'm living - hardly something to worry about unless you're one
> of these people who ups sticks every few years.
>
> Now if prices dropped wiping out the last 12-18 YEARS gains, then I'd be
> pretty pissed off if I'd bought my house within that timeframe and I
> needed
> to sell now.
>

I am not sure what you mean by that. If houses drop in price by 40% from
their peak that means that a £200,000 house drops to £120,000. It does not
matter when you bought it.

What you may mean, with respect, is that prices may fall 40% from the
difference between their peak and the last trough, say in the 1990s, an
altogether different calculation.


> But that's the point about the housing market woes isn't it? People will
> only lose out if they are selling properties they bought at a higher price
> than its worth now...and even if your house price is lower than when you
> bought it on paper and you're not planning on moving, there's no current
> problem.  As long as you like living in your property and can pay your
> mortgage or even better, if you have no mortgage, I can't see what all the
> fuss is about.
>
> The only losers will be the unfortunates who have no other choice in
> having
> to sell now, those who lack time in waiting for a better time to sell and
> those who like to flit about and gamble on rising prices and happen to
> make
> the bad decisions at the wrong times. Which narrows down the effect of
> this
> crisis considerably. In fact, the worst case scenario must be that someone
> paid a fortune for a property in the last 12 months or so and need to sell
> it now asap at a low double-digit loss. How many people would that be?
> Millions? Or just a few thousand?

Exactly! With one reservation. The UK and US governments have manufactured a
boom based on artificially increasing asset values for their own political
purposes. Cheap credit meant people could spend more, spending more
according to government was a good thing, it pushed asset values up, they
thought they had self-sustaining growth. Sadly for the less wise among us
debt has to be paid back one day. That is the day the whole facade
collapses. About now!

> > A 42-43% drop from now would probably only wipe out the last 18-24
months
> > gains where I'm living - hardly something to worry about unless you're
one
> > of these people who ups sticks every few years.
> >
> > Now if prices dropped wiping out the last 12-18 YEARS gains, then I'd be
> > pretty pissed off if I'd bought my house within that timeframe and I
> > needed
> > to sell now.
> >
>
> I am not sure what you mean by that. If houses drop in price by 40% from
> their peak that means that a £200,000 house drops to £120,000. It does not
> matter when you bought it.

A fall back to just before the last 12-18 months gains is nothing much to
get excited about in the long run, but if property prices fell to what they
were 12-18 years ago, then we'd be waiting around another decade or more
before prices caught back up to where they were just before the crash. The
important thing here is time. I'm not fussed by a crash wiping out the last
few years growth, but if the crash took prices back historically further and
further then the effects would be longer lasting and more widely felt.
Fortunately that's very unlikely. However losing out on inflationary growth
of the housing market in the meantime will affect all of us in the long run
to the tune of a few thousand no doubt.

> Exactly! With one reservation. The UK and US governments have manufactured
a
> boom based on artificially increasing asset values for their own political
> purposes. Cheap credit meant people could spend more, spending more
> according to government was a good thing, it pushed asset values up, they
> thought they had self-sustaining growth. Sadly for the less wise among us
> debt has to be paid back one day. That is the day the whole facade
> collapses. About now!

A market that favours increasing the house prices of those politicians who
have several expensive ones until a time they can sell them off to keep them
in their old age after they are booted from their jobs seems to have been a
likely motive in the bad policy making behind all this. I'd like to see
statistics of the total number of MPs owning more than one property. I'd
then be interested to see when they sold up. Presumerably just before
Northern Rock collapsed.

"Not Today"  wrote in message 
news:25os74.ep0.17.1@news.alt.net...
>
> "Not Today"  wrote in message 
> news:25os3d.8ap.19.1@news.alt.net...
>>
>> "Knight Of The Road"  wrote in message 
>> news:trCdnQLK3_2tAVzVnZ2dnUVZ8jqdnZ2d@bt.com...
>>> "Not Today"  wrote
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>> 42-43%? It might happen by 2014.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The bottom of the House Price Crash will be February 2010.
>>>
>>> In 2014 the next Boom will be in mid-term.
>>
>> Wishful thinking. You have been reading conventional wisdom. Do not say 
>> you were not warned.
>>
>> You have made 10% so far, I have made 50% and kept my house. Do not fall 
>> into the bear trap in 2010, it will be what is known as a sucker's rally. 
>> That is my last piece of advice. You obviously know it all!
>
> I am wondering, did you read the rest of my post about a book you should 
> read?

I just ordered it off of Amazon for 9.79 ... should be here Tuesday.  I'll 
be interested to read it. 


** Posted from http://www.teranews.com **

"The Hatter"  wrote in message 
news:27a45$48c27f19$21271@news.teranews.com...
>
> "Not Today"  wrote in message 
> news:25os74.ep0.17.1@news.alt.net...
>>
> I am wondering, did you read the rest of my post about a book you should
>> read?
>
> I just ordered it off of Amazon for 9.79 ... should be here Tuesday.  I'll 
> be interested to read it.

It is based on cycles of the US economy but the UK follows so closely it is 
still very useful. More useful is that it gets you thinking in an entirely 
different way. At least it did me. I have followed Prechter and Elliott 
Waves ever since. He forecast in June the dollar would go up and gold would 
go down when everyone else was saying the opposite. Look what happened.

"Not Today"  wrote


 > I am the first to admit you can do anything with statistics but take a 
look
> at the FT House Price Index. 
> http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/ftHousePrices.php
>
> This shows that year on year to July 2008 house prices actually went up!




I would have to say that that report does not tally with what I am seeing in 
estate agents' windows.


-- 
Regards, Vince.

Harry Monk's Long Distance Diary   Luton-Huelva

http://trucknetuk.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=34657 (New 9th August 2008)