With Parliamentary Boundary changes likely to be enacted at the next
election, what will be the effect of the new boundaries in those areas
where the boundaries have been confirmed and what seats will switch
over notionally. Would be interested in seeing any estimates given.

Martin

In article ,
 "MJW"  wrote:


> With Parliamentary Boundary changes likely to be enacted at the next
> election, what will be the effect of the new boundaries in those areas
> where the boundaries have been confirmed and what seats will switch
> over notionally. Would be interested in seeing any estimates given.


There will presumably be a 'Notional general election of 2005'
produced. The changes have not been as profound as 1997. I suspect
that the new Chelmsford Borough Constituency would have been still
Conservative as would Basingstoke (although narrowly); Harlow would
have been slightly safer Labour; and Northampton South might not have
gone Conservative.

Perhaps Mike Drew could let us know how the new seats in Northavon^W
South Gloucestershire are thought to have gone.

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David Boothroyd wrote

> MJW  wrote
> > With Parliamentary Boundary changes likely to be enacted at the
next
> > election, what will be the effect of the new boundaries in those
areas
> > where the boundaries have been confirmed and what seats will switch
> > over notionally. Would be interested in seeing any estimates given.
>
> There will presumably be a 'Notional general election of 2005'
> produced. The changes have not been as profound as 1997.


I'm in Highgate: as I understand it, we get removed from Hampstead &
Highgate and returned to Holborn St Pancras, which won't have much
effect on that constituency. What's more interesting is the carve-up of
Brent, a small part of which is used to make Hampstead & Kilburn. Brent
East, which has been so exciting in recent psephological terms, ceases
to exist, I believe.
-- 
Henry

In article , 
david@election.demon.co.uk says...

> In article ,
>  "MJW"  wrote:
> 
> > With Parliamentary Boundary changes likely to be enacted at the next
> > election, what will be the effect of the new boundaries in those areas
> > where the boundaries have been confirmed and what seats will switch
> > over notionally. Would be interested in seeing any estimates given.
> 
> There will presumably be a 'Notional general election of 2005'
> produced. The changes have not been as profound as 1997. I suspect
> that the new Chelmsford Borough Constituency would have been still
> Conservative as would Basingstoke (although narrowly); Harlow would
> have been slightly safer Labour; and Northampton South might not have
> gone Conservative.


I believe that there are at least three groups working on a notional 
election. Unfortunately, as many council have re-warded over between the 
last set of changes and this one, I suspect the notionals will be a 
little more inaccurate than usual.

Should the BC's current recommendations appear, it will be interesting 
to see the notionals for Birmingham Edgbaston, Selly Oak and Hall Green 
as I suspect they are all subject to slightly more error due to the 
rewarding.

David Boothroyd wrote:

> In article ,
>  "MJW"  wrote:
> 
> 
>>With Parliamentary Boundary changes likely to be enacted at the next
>>election, what will be the effect of the new boundaries in those areas
>>where the boundaries have been confirmed and what seats will switch
>>over notionally. Would be interested in seeing any estimates given.
> 
> 
> There will presumably be a 'Notional general election of 2005'
> produced. The changes have not been as profound as 1997. I suspect
> that the new Chelmsford Borough Constituency would have been still
> Conservative as would Basingstoke (although narrowly); Harlow would
> have been slightly safer Labour; and Northampton South might not have
> gone Conservative.
> 
> Perhaps Mike Drew could let us know how the new seats in Northavon^W
> South Gloucestershire are thought to have gone.


South Gloucestershire which currently has 1 seat (Northavon) wholly 
within the Authority area and three seats partially within - Kingswood 
(has some Bristol wards), Wansdyke (has some Bath and NE Somerset 
wards), Bristol Northwest (some Bristol wards).

These will be replaced by three seats wholly within South Gloucestershire:

Thornbury and Yate: which will be the bulk of the current Northavon Seat 
- This ought to be very safe for Lib Dems

Filton and Bradley Stoke: The Sougth Glos party of Bristol NW plus 
Winterbourne and Bradley Stoke Wards of the Northavon constituency - 
this should be a three way marginal

Kingswood (I forget if this is the actual name) which is the South 
Gloucestershire wards of Wansdyke and Kingswood plus a bit of Northavon: 
this should be Labour/Con marginal with a strong Lib Dem third.



>